AN INTELLIGENT MACHINE LEARNING FRAMEWORK FOR FISHRIES FOR- CASTING AND SECURITY SURVIELANCE
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Abstract
Fisheries and aquaculture are vital to global food security but face critical challenges, including security threats from unauthorized access, the limitations of reactive manual monitoring, and uncertainty in long-term production forecasting. Existing management tools often lack a unified approach to integrate real-time operational surveillance with predictive decision-support analytics. This study aims to address these gaps by designing and developing a hybrid methodological framework that integrates computer vision for security and advanced machine learning and time-series forecasting for production analysis and stock management. The study employed a dual-component methodology. For security, an OpenCV-based Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) descriptor combined with a Support Vector Machine (SVM) was implemented to achieve automated, real-time human intrusion detection and alarm triggering. For predictive analytics, a hybrid approach was utilized, applying Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX) for long-term production forecasting and various ensemble classifiers (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbors) to analyze fish survivability and production trends. Results demonstrate that this integrated framework is highly effective across operational and strategic levels. The computer vision system successfully provided continuous, automated surveillance with verifiable digital evidence. The ensemble classifiers achieved near-perfect performance in survivability prediction (e.g., Random Forest Accuracy = 0.98, F1-score = 0.99, AUC ≈ 0.999). Furthermore, the SARIMAX model effectively projected a steady increase in global fish production, forecasting growth from 232.19 million tonnes in 2024 to 272.12 million tonnes by 2043—a 17.19% increase—capturing long-term temporal dynamics that static regressors fail to model. Based on these findings, it is recommended that fisheries stakeholders prioritize the deployment of computer vision-based surveillance to reduce security risks and labor costs. Additionally, management authorities should integrate ensemble classifiers into stock-management systems to optimize survivability and adopt SARIMAX-based forecasting for robust, evidence-based policy planning. The implementation of these data-driven platforms will significantly enhance sustainable fisheries governance and support proactive resource allocation.
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