Tax Policy and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria
Faculty
Department
Year of Publication
Publication Type
Abstract
This study examined the effect of Tax Policy on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows
in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the moderating role of tax concessions. Using annual time-series data spanning 1994-2024, the study employed a short-run
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to analyse the dynamic relationships
between major tax policy instruments, tax concessions, and foreign direct investment. The
analysis focused on Company Income Tax (Cit), Customs and Excise Duties (Ced), Petroleum
Profit Tax (Ppt), Value Added Tax (Vat), and Tax Concessions (TAXC), while controlling for
exchange rate movements (EXR) and corruption rating (COR).The results of the Augmented
Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests showed that the variables attained stationarity at different
levels, while the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests indicated the absence of
cointegration and a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, thereby justifying
reliance on short-run dynamic estimation. The empirical findings from the baseline model revealed that CIT, CED, PPT, VAT, and
TAXC do not exert statistically significant direct short-run effects on foreign direct investment
inflows in Nigeria. However, the results of the moderated model indicate that TAXC
significantly moderate the relationships between CIT and FDI, as well as between VAT and FDI. These findings indicate that tax concessions function more effectively as complementary fiscal
instruments that condition the impact of selected taxes rather than as standalone investment
incentives. In contrast, tax concessions were found not to significantly moderate the effects of
CED or PPT on FDI.
in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the moderating role of tax concessions. Using annual time-series data spanning 1994-2024, the study employed a short-run
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to analyse the dynamic relationships
between major tax policy instruments, tax concessions, and foreign direct investment. The
analysis focused on Company Income Tax (Cit), Customs and Excise Duties (Ced), Petroleum
Profit Tax (Ppt), Value Added Tax (Vat), and Tax Concessions (TAXC), while controlling for
exchange rate movements (EXR) and corruption rating (COR).The results of the Augmented
Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests showed that the variables attained stationarity at different
levels, while the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests indicated the absence of
cointegration and a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, thereby justifying
reliance on short-run dynamic estimation. The empirical findings from the baseline model revealed that CIT, CED, PPT, VAT, and
TAXC do not exert statistically significant direct short-run effects on foreign direct investment
inflows in Nigeria. However, the results of the moderated model indicate that TAXC
significantly moderate the relationships between CIT and FDI, as well as between VAT and FDI. These findings indicate that tax concessions function more effectively as complementary fiscal
instruments that condition the impact of selected taxes rather than as standalone investment
incentives. In contrast, tax concessions were found not to significantly moderate the effects of
CED or PPT on FDI.
Supervisor(s)
co-supervisor


