Economic Growth

This study evaluates the performance of international trade and its contribution to economic growth in Nigeria over a 34-year period (1990- 2024), utilizing annual time series data and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique. The research addresses the persistent challenge of why Nigeria has struggled to achieve significant economic growth despite its participation in global trade and the implementation of an Export-Led Growth (ELG) strategy. The key objective was to examine the impact of export trade, import trade, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The empirical results established that international trade exerts a mixed influence on Nigeria’s economy. The findings revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between import trade and economic growth, suggesting that the importation of productive capital goods and raw materials is crucial for enhancing domestic production capacity. Similarly, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) had a significant positive impact on economic growth, underscoring the value of a favorable investment climate. Conversely, export trade exhibited a negative and statistically insignificant effect on economic growth, which is primarily attributed to Nigeria's overreliance on crude oil and a weak, undiversified export structure.

This study evaluates the effect of government expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data of 30 years (1990-2020). The variables used for the study include recurrent expenditure, expenditure on highways, safety costs, education costs as the independent variables and real GDP as the dependent variable. Four objectives were formulated for the study and four hypotheses were also prepared in line with the objectives. Ex-post-facto research design was employed and the time series data was generated and analysed using regression analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) testing technique and Error Correction Model-based, Granger Causality, unit root test, and cointegration to examine the long run causal effect relationship that exist between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria. The study finds that government expenditure on highway, and expenditure on safety has positive significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria at 5% and 1% levels respectively, government recurrent expenditure has positive and no statistical significant on economic growth, while government expenditure on education has negative and no significant effect on the economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends among others that Government should appropriate lesser portion of its expenditure to recurrent expenditure and pay more attention to capital expenditure as it is the major drive to economic growth.

This study investigates the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 2000 to 2024. Financial inclusion was measured using the number of bank branches per 100,000 adults, automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults, borrowers from commercial banks per 1,000 adults, and current account holders per 1,000 adults, while economic growth was proxied by the real gross domestic product (RGDP) growth rate. The study relied on secondary data obtained from credible sources, including the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System, and World Bank Development Indicators. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, panel unit root tests, Johansen Fisher Panel Cointegration Test, and Panel Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) regression. The results indicate that the number of bank branches and bank borrowers have a significant positive impact on economic growth, whereas ATMs and current account holders exhibit a significant negative effect. These findings suggest that while expanding physical banking infrastructure and credit access support economic growth, digital banking access and current account proliferation may not automatically translate into growth unless accompanied by targeted financial inclusion strategies. The study concludes that effective policy interventions are required to optimize the benefits of financial inclusion and recommends the strategic deployment of banking resources, particularly to underserved populations, to enhance Nigeria’s economic performance.

The study employed OLS to determine the impact of export on economic growth in Nigeria .The study used time series data from 1981-2022.The study revealed that export has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria (RGDP)Non-oil export was found to be positive but insignificant impacting to economic growth in Nigeria (RGDP)Import has negative and insignificant impact on economic growth. And also, Trade openness was found to have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth (RGDP).The result R squared (94..37percent)shoes that the line of best fit was highly fitted. The study found that export-led growth hypothesis is valid in Nigeria context. Therefore we recommend that the government should take active steps to diversify the economy so as to improve export contribution to the growth of Nigerian economy. The government should increase the capital investment in the oil sector. Trade and foreign exchange policies in favor of export expansion should be encouraged as proper implementation of import control measures that will certainly sharpen the understanding of the determinant of import behavior should also adopted in other to growth of the economy.

This research study was carried out to determine the impact of population growth on Nigerian Economy. The specific objectives of the study include investigating the relationship and effect of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria. This research study investigated the impact of population growth on the Nigerian economy using annual time series data for the period 1981 to 2024. The data was extracted from CBN statistical publications (2024), National Bureau of Statistics (2024). ADF technique in testing the unit root property of the series was utilized, the ARDL estimation technique was used to analyze the data. The research findings indicate the following: One year lag coefficient of Real Gross Domestic Product has a positive impact on the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. Population growth has a positive impact on the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. Poverty Head Count Ratio has a positive relationship with the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. Unemployment rate has a positive relationship with the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. Inflation rate has a positive impact on the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. The prices of goods and services increases the value for goods and services also increase which eventually cause increase in the value of Real Gross Domestic Product

This study investigates the comparative effects of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022. Using regression analysis, the research examines how changes in investment, oil exports, non-oil exports, and exchange rates impact Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The findings reveal that non-oil exports significantly and positively influence economic growth, emphasizing the necessity of diversifying Nigeria's export base. Conversely, oil exports show a negative but statistically insignificant effect on RGDP, indicating limited impact despite the sector's economic prominence. Additionally, exchange rate depreciations positively affect economic growth by enhancing export competitiveness. However, investment changes do not exhibit a statistically significant effect on RGDP within the model. The study underscores the importance of policies aimed at export diversification, competitive exchange rate management, and investment attraction to foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria. The results suggest that reducing dependence on oil revenues and promoting non-oil sectors are critical for economic resilience and long term development.

The study analysed the impact of currency devaluation on economic growth in Nigeria, using secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins, World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The data covered a period from 1981-2021. Auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and multiple regressions analysis were employed to examine the relationship between the dependent variable (GDP) and independent variables (Exchange rate, inflation rate, foreign direct investment and Investment). Findings reveals that GDP has a negative relationship with inflation rate, FDI, GFCF and a positive relationship with exchange rate. In conclusion, currency devaluation has significant and statistical impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This study recommends that government should employ the use of managed exchange rate system to enhance competitiveness without causing excessive depreciation since currency devaluation positively influences economic growth.

This study examines how public debt influences economic growth in Nigeria, drawing on twenty years of data covering both domestic and external borrowing. Nigeria has increasingly relied on public debt to fund development, yet rising debt-servicing obligations have created concerns about the country’s fiscal stability and the crowding-out of essential public investment. The study reviews major theories of debt and growth, highlights Nigeria’s historical borrowing patterns, and analyzes whether public debt contributes to or slows down long-term economic performance. Using secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Debt Management Office, and international development institutions, the research assesses the relationship between public debt, debt servicing, GDP growth, and government investment. The findings show that while public debt can support growth when properly utilized, Nigeria’s high debt-servicing burden reduces the resources available for capital expenditure and weakens the overall impact of debt on economic performance. Evidence also suggests that persistent borrowing, weak non-oil revenue, and macroeconomic instability limit the growth-enhancing potential of public debtThis study examines how public debt influences economic growth in Nigeria, drawing on twenty years of data covering both domestic and external borrowing. Nigeria has increasingly relied on public debt to fund development, yet rising debt-servicing obligations have created concerns about the country’s fiscal stability and the crowding-out of essential public investment. The study reviews major theories of debt and growth, highlights Nigeria’s historical borrowing patterns, and analyzes whether public debt contributes to or slows down long-term economic performance. Using secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Debt Management Office, and international development institutions, the research assesses the relationship between public debt, debt servicing, GDP growth, and government investment. The findings show that while public debt can support growth when properly utilized, Nigeria’s high debt-servicing burden reduces the resources available for capital expenditure and weakens the overall impact of debt on economic performance. Evidence also suggests that persistent borrowing, weak non-oil revenue, and macroeconomic instability limit the growth-enhancing potential of public debt

This study looks at how monetary policy affected Nigeria's economic growth between 1988 and 2024. The relationships between the monetary policy rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and Treasury bill rate and GDP is the main focus of the analysis. Different levels of significance and directionality among these variables are identified by the study using the ordinary least squares (OLS) econometric method. The findings reveal that the monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, underscoring its role as a critical tool for economic stabilization. However, interest rate and Treasury bill rate exhibit negative and statistically insignificant relationships with GDP, indicating limited influence within the Nigerian context. Similarly, the inflation rate demonstrates a positive but statistically insignificant relationship with economic growth, suggesting a nuanced effect depending on macroeconomic conditions. The study comes to the conclusion that while monetary policy is still essential for managing the economy, better transmission mechanisms, structural changes, and complementary fiscal measures can increase its efficacy

The study analzsed how agricultural output impact economic growth in Nigeria, from 1981 to 2023. The study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), unit root test, cointegration test and diagnostic tests such as heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation The study found out that there is a positie relationship between real gross domestic product growth rate and crop production, which satisfies our apriori expectation., Similarly, the study shows that there is a positive relationship between real gross domestic product growth rate and fishery, forestry, and livestock’s which satisfies our apriori expectation, finally the study recommended that invest in agricultural infrastructure, ensure agricultural diversification, promote sustainable forestry practices and support fisheries sector development.