Government Expenditure

This study investigates the determinants of unemployment in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and data from 1999 to 2023. The empirical findings reveal that in the short run, population growth and real GDP have a significant
negative impact on unemployment while inflation and government expenditure exhibit a positive and significant effect on unemployment. In the long run, population growth continues to have a significant negative impact on unemployment, inflation remains positively related to unemployment, government expenditure maintains a positive relationship with unemployment
while real GDP has a negative effect on unemployment, underscoring the importance of sustained economic growth in fostering employment. Based on these findings, the study recommends policies aimed at tackling unemployment. Specifically, inflation control measures should be implemented to stabilize prices and support employment-friendly macroeconomic conditions and government expenditure should be efficiently allocated to high-impact sectors such as education, vocational training, and technology-driven industries to maximize job creation.

This study evaluates the effect of government expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data of 30 years (1990-2020). The variables used for the study include recurrent expenditure, expenditure on highways, safety costs, education costs as the independent variables and real GDP as the dependent variable. Four objectives were formulated for the study and four hypotheses were also prepared in line with the objectives. Ex-post-facto research design was employed and the time series data was generated and analysed using regression analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) testing technique and Error Correction Model-based, Granger Causality, unit root test, and cointegration to examine the long run causal effect relationship that exist between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria. The study finds that government expenditure on highway, and expenditure on safety has positive significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria at 5% and 1% levels respectively, government recurrent expenditure has positive and no statistical significant on economic growth, while government expenditure on education has negative and no significant effect on the economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends among others that Government should appropriate lesser portion of its expenditure to recurrent expenditure and pay more attention to capital expenditure as it is the major drive to economic growth.

The study examines the relative impact of government expenditure and external reserves on economic growth in Nigeria within the period 1986-2023, using vector autoregressive methodology. The results revealed that government expenditure on health sector impacts negatively on economic growth while that of education, defence and external reserves impact positively on economic growth. The study recommends that government should increase budgetary allocation and stimulate more funding channels to education and health sectors of the economy. Also, government should allocate more to capital expenditures of education and health than to recurrent expenditures of same in order improve the quality of facilities, materials and equipment in the education and health sectors.

This study investigates the relationships between economic growth, government expenditure, and interest rates in Nigeria, employing various statistical methods. The research aims to provide actionable insights into the interactions between these crucial macroeconomic variables and their implications for policymaking. The theoretical foundation draws from Wagner's Law and the Keynesian Framework, which offer contrasting perspectives on whether government expenditure is a cause or effect of economic growth. Using data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank, the study employs the Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) unit root test to assess stationarity, the Granger causality test to examine causal relationships, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to analyze the effects of interest rates and government expenditure on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings confirm the applicability of Wagner's Law in the Nigerian context, indicating that economic growth granger-causes government spending. Furthermore, the analysis reveals a positive relationship between interest rates, government expenditure, and GDP, although the results are not statistically significant. The study highlights the importance of interest rates as a policy instrument for influencing economic performance and attracting foreign investment. To enhance the statistical robustness of the analysis, the study incorporates the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) table, demonstrating its effectiveness in x evaluating and improving the performance of regression models. The research culminates in actionable recommendations for policymakers, emphasizing the need for strategic fiscal policies, careful interest rate management, and targeted investments in sectors that foster economic growth. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of the intricate dynamics between economic growth, government expenditure, and interest rates in Nigeria, providing valuable insights for policymakers and researchers alike.