DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

Nigeria’s economy has been characterized by persistent macroeconomic instability, evident in its high and often volatile inflation rates and alarming unemployment figures. Misery Index in Nigeria, with an empirical focus on Hanke’s Misery Index, over the period 1992–2024. Grounded in the Quantity Theory of Money and the Phillips Curve, the study investigates how changes in money supply, exchange rate volatility, government expenditure, and oil prices influence economic distress. Using annual time series data, the research applies unit root tests to assess stationarity, correlation analysis to explore inter-variable relationships, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to capture both short- and long-run dynamics. The ARDL bounds test indicates no evidence of long-run cointegration among the variables. Empirical findings reveal that increases in money supply significantly elevate the Misery Index, while exchange rate volatility does not have a significant impact. Lagged government expenditure reduces economic distress, and increase in oil price have a negative but marginally insignificant effect on the Misery Index. The study concludes that coordinated monetary and fiscal policies, informed by both inflation-output trade-offs and money supply considerations, are essential for stabilizing economic welfare in Nigeria.

This study examines the impact of urbanization on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981 to 2024 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach. Gross domestic product (GDP) was used as the dependent variable, while urbanization (URB), population (POP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation (INF) served as explanatory variables. The study employed unit root tests to determine the stationarity of the variables, followed by ARDL bounds testing to investigate the existence of a long-run co-integration relationship among the variables.

Short-run ARDL estimates showed that past values of GDP, urbanization, population, and FDI significantly affect current economic growth, while inflation has a marginally negative impact. Long-run estimates revealed that urbanization and FDI positively influence GDP, whereas population growth and inflation negatively affect economic performance. The error correction term was negative and statistically significant, demonstrating the model’s ability to correct deviations from long-run equilibrium.

Diagnostic tests confirmed the robustness of the model, with no evidence of heteroskedasticity or serial correlation, and the R-squared and F-statistic values indicated strong explanatory power. Based on these findings, the study concludes that
urbanization and stable FDI inflows are critical drivers of economic growth, while population growth and inflation require careful management. Policy recommendations include planned urban development, promotion of sustainable foreign investment, population management, and macroeconomic stability to ensure that urbanization contributes positively to Nigeria’s economic development.

This study examined the effect of corruption on revenue generation among civil servants in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. The findings reveal that various forms of corruption—such as bribery, fund misappropriation, and kickbacks—significantly undermine the government’s revenue generation capacity in Edo State. The study was guided by the following specific objectives: to evaluate the impact of corruption perception on revenue generation among civil servants in Benin City; to investigate the effect of fund misappropriation on revenue generation; to determine the impact of bribery on revenue generation; and to analyze the influence of kickbacks on revenue generation among civil servants in the study area. Primary data were collected from respondents across various ministries, departments, and agencies in Benin City, the capital of Edo State. The study employed descriptive statistical tools, including frequencies, percentages, and mean values, alongside cross-sectional regression analysis. The results indicate that corruption perception has a statistically significant negative impact on revenue generation capacity in Benin City. Similarly, fund misappropriation was found to have a significant adverse effect on government revenue. The study also revealed that bribery significantly reduces revenue generation capacity, while kickbacks among civil servants further contribute to the decline in government revenue. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the government should implement regular public disclosure of revenue collection and expenditure reports to enhance transparency and build public trust. Strengthening accountability mechanisms—such as routine audits, proper documentation of financial processes, and transparent reporting systems—would help reduce opportunities for corrupt practices. Additionally, the state government should reinforce anti-corruption laws and ensure strict enforcement through clearly defined penalties for offenders.

This research aims to examine the influence of the capital market on the economic growth in Nigeria. The establishment of the Capital market aims to attain specified objectives, including the mobilisation of financial resources on a national level and the acquisition of necessary foreign capital to accelerate economic growth. This study employs a time- series research design, utilising secondary data obtained from ww.worldbank.org [1990-2020]. The analysis is conducted using an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings indicate that the capital market does not exert a favourable and statistically significant influence on the economic growth of the country. Additionally, it unveiled the constrained role of the market in fostering the growth of the industrial sector.

The study was undertaken to examine the impact of Human capital development on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021.The main objective of the study is to examine the impact of human capital development has on the growth dynamics of the Nigerian economy. The study adopted the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL), unit root and co-integration using EVIEWS 9 toanalyse among the variables using time series data on government expenditure on education (GEE), government expenditure onhealth (GEH), population growth (POPGR) and government expenditure on social community services (GESCS) as proxies for human capital development, and gross domestic product (GDP) as proxy for economic growth. The results reveal that increases inhuman capital increases economic growth in Nigeria. and health sectors of the economy. The study recommend that the government and policy makers should increase its total expenditure on education, ensure sufficient budgetary allocation on health expenditure, and ensure a standard is set across all educational institutions in the country so that proper human capital required for any individual to become productive and economic growth is enhanced.

This study investigates the efficiency of monetary policies in controlling inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 2000 to 2023 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The analysis incorporates inflation as the dependent variable and Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), broad money supply (M2), exchange rate (EXR), gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign direct investment (FDI) as explanatory variables. The results reveal a stable long-run relationship among the variables, supported by a significantly negative error correction term that indicates rapid adjustment toward equilibrium after short-run shocks.
The findings show that exchange rate movements exert a strong positive and significant influence on inflation in both the short and long run, confirming that currency depreciation remains a major driver of price increases. Conversely, the monetary policy rate exhibits no significant impact on inflation, suggesting weaknesses in Nigeria’s monetary transmission mechanism. Broad money supply demonstrates a negative and significant relationship with inflation, implying that liquidity growth does not immediately fuel inflation and may be absorbed productively in the economy. GDP and FDI display mixed and lagged effects, with long-run impacts that highlight the importance of economic activity and investment in shaping long-term inflation dynamics.
The study concludes that while monetary policy is essential for managing inflation, its effectiveness in Nigeria is constrained by exchange rate instability, structural rigidities, and weak policy transmission. Strengthening monetary fiscal coordination, improving exchange rate management, enhancing financial sector depth, and promoting productive investment are crucial for achieving sustainable price stability.

Remittance inflows and foreign direct investment (FDI) are widely acknowledged as vital external financing sources for developing countries, providing resources that can foster capital formation, employment, and economic transformation. In Nigeria, however, the extent to which these financial inflows contribute to sustained economic growth has been debated, with mixed evidence emerging across different periods and studies. Against this background, the study aimed to assess the short-and long-run effects of remittance inflows and FDI on real gross domestic product in Nigeria from 1981 to 2022.
The research was anchored on growth theories that emphasized the role of capital inflows in augmented domestic savings and investment, particularly the neoclassical growth model. Using time series data spanning 42 years, the study employed correlation analysis, Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root tests, Johansen cointegration test, and the Error Correction model to investigate the stationarity properties of the variables, their long run relationships, and the dynamics of adjustment between the short run and long run.
The findings revealed that FDI exerted a positive significant impact on economic growth in the short but an adverse and insignificant effect in the long run in Nigeria. Conversely, remittances had an insignificant effect in the short run but it contributed positively and significantly to long run growth. Base on these outcomes, the study recommended that policy reforms should prioritize quality over quantity of FDI, strengthen domestic value chains, improve the business environment and channel remittances through innovative mechanisms such as diaspora bonds and matched savings programs to promote sustainable economic growth.

This study examines the impact of poverty on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2024. Despite periods of robust economic expansion, Nigeria continues to experience high and persistent poverty rates, reflecting the country’s enduring growth–poverty paradox. Using annual time-series data obtained from the World Bank, National Bureau of Statistics, and Central Bank of Nigeria, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) to analyze both short-run and long-run relationships between poverty and growth, alongside other macroeconomic variables such as
unemployment, inflation, foreign direct investment, and government expenditure. The results reveal that poverty exerts a significant and negative impact on real GDP in both the short and long run, indicating that high poverty levels constrain Nigeria’s productive capacity and weaken economic performance. Granger causality tests further show a unidirectional causal relationship running from poverty to economic growth, implying that poverty significantly predicts variations in output, whereas growth alone does not substantially reduce poverty. The findings highlight that without inclusive policies targeting poverty reduction, economic growth in Nigeria will remain uneven and unsustainable. The study recommends enhanced social investment, employment generation, human capital development, and equitable income distribution as vital strategies to break the poverty–growth trap and promote broad-based economic progress.

This study examines the impact of stock market on the Nigeria economy from 1990 to 2023. The research investigates the relationships between key stock market indicators; market capitalization, all share index, monetary policy rate, inflation rate, and gross fixed capital formation and economic growth, measured by GDP. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study explores both the short-run and long-run dynamics among these variables. Empirical findings reveal a significant long-run relationship between stock market performance and economic growth in Nigeria. Market capitalization and the all-share index exhibit strong positive effects on GDP, indicating that stock market expansion fosters capital mobilization, investment, and overall productivity. Institutional quality variables, such as civil and political rights, also influence growth by promoting governance stability and investor confidence. Inflation demonstrates a mild positive effect, while the monetary policy rate shows an insignificant impact on growth. The short-run results indicate that moderate inflation and improvements in institutional conditions support temporary economic expansion, while persistent inflation constrains growth. Diagnostic tests confirm the robustness and reliability of the model, showing no issues of serial correlation or heteroskedasticity. The study concludes that stock market development is a critical catalyst for Nigeria’s economic growth and recommends policy reforms that enhance market efficiency, strengthen institutional frameworks, and encourage long-term investment participation.

Considering the dynamic nature of 1external debts and infrastructure 1development in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 and the country's ever-increasing debt, this study was necessary. In particular, it examined how external debt dynamics and debt servicing impacted infrastructure development in Nigeria, and how the country's external debt stock related to infrastructure expansion. Drawing from the Neoclassical Growth Model, the Harrods-Domar 1Economic Growth Model, and the Two-Gap Model, the study sought to comprehend the workings of Nigeria's foreign debt and infrastructure development. The analysis relied on 1secondary data sourced from the 1World Development Indicator, 2020. We used ARDL, ADF, and Ordinary 1Least Square (OLS) to conduct the regression analysis. The E-views software, specifically edition 8.0, was used to analyze the data. Foreign loan servicing has a 1small negative impact on infrastructure1 development, as shown by the results. Therefore, our government must diversify our economy away from its reliance on oil if we are to lessen the blow of falling oil revenues, which usually force us to take on more debt.