DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

development in Nigeria, with GDP growth rate as a proxy for economic development. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), the study assesses both the short-run and long-run effects of key stock market and economic indicators, including market capitalization (MC), all-share index (ASI), inflation rate (INF), monetary policy rate (MPR), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), and foreign direct investment (FDI). The findings reveal that the All Share This study examines the relationship between stock market performance and economic Index (ASI) has a persistent positive and significant impact on GDP growth, indicating that stock market performance plays a crucial role in economic development. Conversely, inflation (INF) and market capitalization (MC) exhibit persistent negative and significant impacts, suggesting that rising stock market values do not necessarily translate into real economic growth. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and foreign direct investment (FDI) have negative and insignificant effects in the short run, while FDI exhibits a positive but insignificant long-run impact. Additionally, the monetary policy rate (MPR) has a negative and insignificant short-run impact on GDP growth. The study concludes that while stock market performance is important for economic development, inflation control, efficient capital allocation, and strategic investment policies are necessary to sustain long-term growth. Policy recommendations include enhancing financial market efficiency, ensuring productive capital allocation, attracting growth-driven FDI, and implementing balanced monetary policies to support economic stability. Keywords: Stock Market, Economic Development, ARDL, Market Capitalization, Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Nigeria.

NIL

This study examines the impact of fiscal and financial policies on industrial performance in Nigeria over the period 1981 to 2023, drawing on endogenous growth theory, which emphasises the role of policy-driven capital accumulation, technological progress, and productivity in sustaining long-term economic growth. Specifically, the study investigates the effects of government expenditure and financial depth on industrial output, recognising that effective government intervention and a well-functioning financial system can generate growth-enhancing externalities. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics. The empirical results reveal that government expenditure exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on industrial performance in both the short run and long run, supporting the endogenous growth proposition that productive public investment stimulates sustained industrial growth. In contrast, credit to the private sector, used as a measure of financial depth, has a negative and statistically significant effect, suggesting inefficiencies in the allocation of financial resources to the industrial sector. Inflation is found to have an insignificant effect on industrial performance. The ARDL bounds test confirms the existence of a stable long-run relationship among fiscal policy, financial policy, inflation, and industrial performance. Based on these findings, the study recommends strengthening productivity-oriented government expenditure, particularly in industrial infrastructure, alongside reforms in the financial sector to improve the effectiveness of private sector credit in supporting industrial activities. It further emphasises the need for coordinated and long-term fiscal and financial policy frameworks to promote sustainable industrial growth in Nigeria.

This study empirically analyzes the impacts of public debt on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria. The broad objective of this study is to empirically analyze the impacts of public debt on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria. The Ordinary Least Squares method was adopted to analyze the relationship between public debt and manufacturing capacity, private sector loan, Gross Domestic Product, consumption expenditure and interest rate. Secondary data which spans from 1981 to 2024, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin for real sector, public sector and World Development Index, was extracted and utilized for empirical analysis. Some forms of pre-estimation tests were carried out in order to obtain satisfactory results. Such tests are the unit root test: test for stationarity, the co-integration test which tests for long run equilibrium relation between the variables of interest of this study. This study seeks to discover the effect of public debt on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria. Therefore, in conclusion public debt positively impacts on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria and it is significant, private sector loan has a significant positive impact on manufacturing capacity, Gross Domestic Product has a significant positive impact on the manufacturing capacity however both consumption expenditure and interest rate have negative impact on manufacturing capacity. Haven discovered from this study the significant positive impact of public on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria, it is therefore recommended that: The federal government should ensure that enough capital is available for the manufacturing sector given the importance of the manufacturing sector to the Nigerian economy. The monetary authority should ensure that the level of interest rate (cost of capital) does not discourage domestic manufacturing industries that need capital from both the money market and the capital market for investment purpose

This study assesses the relationship between firm size and financial structure evidence from small firms in Nigeria. The main objective of the study is to investigate the relationship between finance and small-scale enterprise productivity. The Ordinary Least Squares method was adopted to analyze the relationship between finance (debt finance and equity finance) and small-scale enterprise productivity (proxy with small scale profitability). Secondary data was utilized for empirical analysis. The unit root test: test for stationarity, was carried out to determine if the chosen variables were stationary at level. Estimation of the parameters' using OLS was performed and interpretations were given according to the results obtained. The result shows debt finance, equity finance and revenue have a positive impact on small scale enterprise profitability. Cost however impacted negatively on small scale enterprise profitability. Small Scale Enterprises (MSE’s) are unarguably important in developing the Nigerian economy for the following key reasons which are; social and political role in domestic creation of employment, adequate resource utilization and income generation, the efficient use of local technology and raw materials and the promotion of change in a gradual and peaceful manner. There is growing realization on the part of the Government that instead of the promotion of large-scale enterprises, it should inventively promote micro, small, and small medium enterprises. Finance is one of the factors needed by small firms to boost their level of profitability and thus their level of productivity. The growth of any industry largely depends upon the availability of adequate financing of business activities. Haven discovered from this study that the positive impact of finance on, it is therefore recommended that firms should have access to adequate funding either through debt financing or equity financing. Banks and other financial institutions should make debt financing in the form of bank loans and overdraft facilities readily available to small firms.

This study examines the relative impact of remittance and foreign direct investment on Nigeria economic growth for the period 1981-2023. Real gross domestic product growth (RGDPG) is taken as proxy for Nigeria’s Economic growth. The study utilizes the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the relative impact of remittances and foreign direct investment on Nigeria’s economic growth for both the short and long run term. The long-run ARDL coefficient estimates reveal that remittances is the only variable with statistically significant positive effect on Nigeria’s economic growth with a coefficient estimate of 0.3204 implying a unit rise in remittance leading to 0.32 percent increase in real GDP growth (RGDP). Conversely, FDI, gross capital formation (GCF) and exchange rate exhibited statistically insignificant long-run effects in the estimated model. The result indicates that remittance have a strong and positive long-run influence on Nigeria’s economic growth, suggesting that sustained in flows of remittances funds contribute significantly to the country’s economic growth trajectory. Foreign directs investment (FDI), Gross Capital Formation (GFC) and exchange rate are statistically insignificant, suggesting that their long-term impacts on Nigeria’s GDP growth are weak or unstable within the examined period. On the overall, policy makers are to ensure continuous improvement on remittances channels as a key driver of Nigeria’s economic growth and tackle factors responsible for instability in FDI such as political instability, insecurity, insurgency, volatile business environment amongst others as both remittances and FDI are critical to the long-term Nigeria’s economic growth process.

This study empirically examines the nexus between intra-trade and economic growth in thirteen ECOWAS countries. ECOWAS was formed to promote Trade liberalization scheme (ETLS) ECOWAS Common External Tariffs (CET) to eliminate trade barriers, encourage free flow of goods and services, simplify customs procedures and harmonized tariffs on goods imported from non ECOWAS countries. This has not improved the economy of the sub-region. Employing copious sequential econometric tools of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis as well as the causality analysis, the panel unit root, co-integration test and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method for the period 1990 – 2023. The empirical finding for the correlation analysis revealed a negative relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth rate) and intra-regional trade. The correlation between human capital development (HCD) and economic growth is positive. The result between trade openness (TO) and economic growth is positive. The correlation coefficients among the explanatory variables are weak which implies that there is no multi-collinearity among the explanatory variables. For the granger causality test using the pair-wise Dumitrescue- Hurlin tests revealed that there is no causality between economic growth (GDP per capita growth) and intra-regional trade with causality running from either economic growth or intra-regional trade share to each other. However, the test showed that human capital development (HCD) causes economic growth (GDP per capita growth rate) implying that causality runs from human capital development to economic growth in the ECOWAS sub- region. For the panel cointegration tests (the Pedroni, Kao, and Johansen Firsher) revealed that there is a long run relationship among the study variables. Also, for the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method, the signs of all the estimated coefficients of the explanatory variable in the model conformed to their a priori expectations except intra- regional trade share and credit to the private sector as a share of GDP. The coefficient of intra-regional trade share is negative but insignificant implying that intra-regional trade does not have a significant effect on economic growth (GDP per capita growth rate) in ECOWAS sub-region. The coefficient of human capital development is positive and significant at 5 percent level, implying that it has a significant impact on economic growth in ECOWAS sub-region. The coefficient of trade openness is positive but fails the significant test at the 5 percent level of significant. Against the backdrop of these empirical findings, we recommend amongst other; ECOWAS should intensify efforts to fully implement the ECOWAS Common External Tariff and eliminate policy induced and non tariff barriers such as inconsistent customs procedures, excessive checkpoints, and unofficial fees that hinder the free movement of persons, goods and services to boost intra-regional trade in order to enhance rapid and sustained economic growth within the ECOWAS sub-region.

This study investigated the impact of government debt, revenue, and their relationship with economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1990 to 2024. It aimed to examine the effects of government debt on economic growth, the influence of government revenue on growth, the impact of debt on Nigeria’s annual GDP growth rate, and the role of internally generated revenue. Secondary data were collected primarily from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Debt Management Office, National Bureau of Statistics, and World Bank databases. The methodology adopted included an econometric model estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and panel fixed effects to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of government fiscal variables on economic growth. Results revealed that government debt had a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth in the short run, implying that borrowing provided some support to government sustainability but lacked robust growth stimulation. In the long run, debt demonstrated a negative and insignificant relationship with growth, suggesting potential crowding-out effects and fiscal risks that align with some extant Nigerian literature. Government revenue showed a positive and statistically significant association with economic growth, confirming its critical role in funding development projects and stimulating the economy. Internally generated revenue also had a positive yet statistically insignificant impact, indicating sensitivity in tax policy implementation to avoid negatively affecting production and economic activity. Based on these findings, it was recommended that the government implement prudent debt management policies to ensure borrowing supports growth without generating harmful longterm consequences. Tax authorities were advised to improve revenue collection efficiency by adopting fair tax policies that avoid overburdening taxpayers, thus encouraging sustainable economic expansion. Policymakers should focus on enhancing government revenue via effective fiscal measures to provide sufficient funds for infrastructure and development. Additionally, relevant agencies needed to strengthen internally generated revenue systems by promoting transparency and fairness, which would improve economic stability and growth prospects. These steps would help balance the benefits of government fiscal interventions while minimizing risks to Nigeria’s economic future

This study empirically analyzes the impacts of public debt on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria. The broad objective of this study is to empirically analyze the impacts of public debt on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria. The Ordinary Least Squares method was adopted to analyze the relationship between public debt and manufacturing capacity, private sector loan, Gross Domestic Product, consumption expenditure and interest rate. Secondary data which spans from 1981 to 2024, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin for real sector, public sector and World Development Index, was extracted and utilized for empirical analysis. Some forms of pre-estimation tests were carried out in order to obtain satisfactory results. Such tests are the unit root test: test for stationarity, the co-integration test which tests for long run equilibrium relation between the variables of interest of this study. This study seeks to discover the effect of public debt on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria. Therefore, in conclusion public debt positively impacts on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria and it is significant, private sector loan has a significant positive impact on manufacturing capacity, Gross Domestic Product has a significant positive impact on the manufacturing capacity however both consumption expenditure and interest rate have negative impact on manufacturing capacity. Haven discovered from this study the significant positive impact of public on manufacturing capacity in Nigeria, it is therefore recommended that: The federal government should ensure that enough capital is available for the manufacturing sector given the importance of the manufacturing sector to the Nigerian economy. The monetary authority should ensure that the level of interest rate (cost of capital) does not discourage domestic manufacturing industries that need capital from both the money market and the capital market for investment purpose.

Fossil fuel subsidies have long been recognized as a significant misalignment between energy pricing policies and environmental sustainability objectives, encouraging overconsumption of fossil fuels and slowing the transition to cleaner energy sources. While these subsidies are often justified on grounds of affordability and energy security, they tend to exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions, distort energy markets, and undermine climate policy commitments. The aim of this study is to examine the environmental consequences of fossil fuel subsidies and the impact of subsidy reforms across a geographically diverse sample of 68 countries. The data utilized in this study span the periods 2010 to 2023. Of the 68 countries in the sample, 51 are identified as having implemented fossil fuel subsidy reforms between 2010 and 2023, while 17 serve as control countries that maintained their subsidy regimes without major reforms during this period. The study employed a combination of system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation and the Callaway and Sant’Anna Difference-in- Differences method with staggered treatment to analyse the effects of fossil fuel subsidies and subsidy reforms on CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions. The result from the system GMM revealed that fossil fuel subsidies significantly increased emissions, with affluence moderating the effect such that higher-income countries experience a smaller emissions response to subsidies. The analysis found no evidence for the traditional Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC); however, reform-augmented EKC analysis demonstrated that subsidy reforms can generate complex dynamics, including temporary “green paradox” effects, where emissions initially rise among low-income populations due to higher energy prices and limited access to clean alternatives. Over the longer term, the Staggered Difference in Difference results showed that subsidy reforms significantly reduced emissions, with earlier adopters achieving the greatest cumulative environmental gains. Based on these findings, the study recommended that policymakers calibrate subsidy strategies to income levels, phase out subsidies alongside investments in clean energy access, enact policies that protect the biomass and maintain reforms as continuous rather than one-off measures. The work contributed to knowledge by empirically validating the differential effects of fossil fuel subsidy reforms on emissions, highlighting the importance of context- sensitive climate policy