DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

This research investigates the relationship between currency hoarding and the effectiveness of monetary policy in Nigeria. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we find that currency hoarding and monetary policy both have positive associations with aggregate consumption. However, the study does not conclude that currency hoarding affects the effectiveness of monetary policy on consumption. This complex interplay calls for nuanced policy measures, including tailored strategies for diverse currency hoarding motivations and improved communication to optimize policy outcomes.

This study examines the role of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), in promoting capital formation within the Nigerian economy. The research evaluates how the issuance of securities and market capitalization influence gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which serves as a proxy for investment. Annual time series data spanning from 1985 to 2023 were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics between the stock market and capital formation. The results reveal evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, confirming that the stock market have significant implications for capital formation in Nigeria. However, the direction of these effects is mixed. The issuance of securities exhibits a positive but statistically weak short-run impact, while its lagged values show negative and significant effects, suggesting that funds raised through new issues are not always efficiently channelled into productive investments. Similarly, market capitalization exerts a negative long-run influence on capital formation, indicating that growth in the market’s value has not consistently translated into real sector investment. In contrast, domestic credit exerts a strong positive effect on capital formation, while the real lending rate shows a significant negative effect, underscoring the importance of credit availability and affordable borrowing costs for investment growth. The study concludes that the Nigerian Stock Exchange plays a vital, role in mobilizing long-term funds for productive investment. It recommends that regulators strengthen market transparency, deepen public participation, promote broader access to financing instruments and ensuring macroeconomic stability to enhance the stock market’s capacity to support sustainable capital formation and economic growth in Nigeria.

This study investigates the determinants of unemployment in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and data from 1999 to 2023. The empirical findings reveal that in the short run, population growth and real GDP have a significant
negative impact on unemployment while inflation and government expenditure exhibit a positive and significant effect on unemployment. In the long run, population growth continues to have a significant negative impact on unemployment, inflation remains positively related to unemployment, government expenditure maintains a positive relationship with unemployment
while real GDP has a negative effect on unemployment, underscoring the importance of sustained economic growth in fostering employment. Based on these findings, the study recommends policies aimed at tackling unemployment. Specifically, inflation control measures should be implemented to stabilize prices and support employment-friendly macroeconomic conditions and government expenditure should be efficiently allocated to high-impact sectors such as education, vocational training, and technology-driven industries to maximize job creation.

Unemployment and inflation are major forerunners of underdevelopment in developing countries. Agriculture was known to be one of the major contributors to national development. The economic burden of unemployment and inflation on a country necessitates this study. The objectives of the study were to examine the dimension and linkage between agricultural growth and inflation and also unemployment and to evaluate the effect of inflation and unemployment on agricultural production in Nigeria. Time series data were employed for the study from the year 1981-2019 (38yrs).the research compiled data from the Central
Bank of Nigeria(CBN)statistical bulletin, Nigeria Bureau of Statistics(NBS),International Financial Statistics and data files,CIA World
Factbook and International Monetary Fund’s.(IMF).the project utilized the Ordinary Least Square(OLS) model were the analytical tool used, it shows that agricultural output, unemployment and inflation are related. Some of the recommendations given are that agriculture in Nigeria should be given a top priority and that government bodies should encourage the poor farmers by absorbing the excess inventory of agricultural output in order to distribute it to the total populace and thus increase in agricultural production will create more employment, reduces inflation and as a result alleviate poverty.

This study examines the effect of inflationary pressures on household consumption expenditure in Nigeria between 1991 and 2024. Using descriptive statistics and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the study investigates the roles of
inflation, exchange rate volatility, and unemployment in shaping consumption dynamics. Unit root and diagnostic tests were applied to ensure robustness, while estimations were conducted with Views. The findings reveal that inflation significantly increases household consumption in the short run but exerts no meaningful long-run effect. Exchange rate volatility and unemployment were found to be insignificant in both the short and long run, reflecting the moderating influence of Nigeria’s informal sector. Overall, the results suggest that while households adjust nominal spending upward in response to short-run price shocks, long-run consumption remains resilient to inflationary, exchange rate, and unemployment pressures. The study highlights the
transient nature of inflation’s impact on household welfare in Nigeria.

This study investigates the determinants of unemployment in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and data from 1999 to 2023. The empirical findings reveal that in the short run, population growth and real GDP have a significant
negative impact on unemployment while inflation and government expenditure exhibit a positive and significant effect on unemployment. In the long run, population growth continues to have a significant negative impact on unemployment, inflation remains positively related to unemployment, government expenditure maintains a positive relationship with unemployment
while real GDP has a negative effect on unemployment, underscoring the importance of sustained economic growth in fostering employment. Based on these findings, the study recommends policies aimed at tackling unemployment. Specifically, inflation control measures should be implemented to stabilize prices and support employment-friendly macroeconomic conditions and government expenditure should be efficiently allocated to high-impact sectors such as education, vocational training, and technology-driven industries to maximize job creation.

The exchange rate is a key macroeconomic factor that affects international trade and the real economy of each country. This study made use of annual data of Nigeria from 1981-2019 to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria and the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) was used to examine the relationship. The study found that the level of foreign direct investment positively and significantly affects economic growth in Nigeria, the level of government expenditure positively and significantly affects economic growth in Nigeria and the level of exchange rate volatility which is the key independent variable in the study was found to have a negative and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that in order to regulate the tendencies of exchange rate volatility, The government should diversify the economy as well as increase industrialization and manufacturing activities , which will help reduce the pressure on the currency as the dependency effect would be reduced

This study investigates the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria between 1995 and 2024. Using annual time series data and econometric techniques such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and the Error Correction Model (ECM), the study examines both short-run and long-run dynamics among key variables including non-oil exports (NOX), real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign exchange earnings (FX), employment (EMP), inflation (INF), and exchange rate (EXR). The cointegration results confirm the existence of long-run relationships among the variables. Findings from the ECM indicate that non-oil exports have a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth and employment, while they significantly enhance foreign exchange earnings. Exchange rate fluctuations exhibit a significant negative effect on RGDP but a positive effect on employment in the short run, whereas inflation remains insignificant across models. The results suggest that although non-oil exports contribute meaningfully to foreign exchange generation, their potential to stimulate broad-based economic growth and job creation has not been fully realized. The study recommends policies that promote export diversification, value addition, exchange rate stability, infrastructure development, and employment-oriented industrialization to strengthen the link between non-oil exports and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria

This study investigates the impact of agricultural funding on food production in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022, focusing on key variables including agricultural machinery, deposit money banks' loan to the agricultural sector, federal government's annual agriculture expenditure, and agricultural credit guarantee scheme. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis, the study provides valuable insights into the relationship between these factors and food production outcomes. The results reveal a significant positive influence of agricultural machinery on food production, highlighting the importance of mechanization in enhancing agricultural productivity. Additionally, higher government expenditure on agriculture is found to positively influence food production levels. However, the relationship between bank loans to the agricultural sector and food production is inconclusive, warranting further investigation. The presence of an agricultural credit guarantee scheme shows a significant but unexpected negative impact on food production, calling for deeper exploration. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed, including prioritizing investments in agricultural machinery, increasing government expenditure on agriculture, and revamping
agricultural credit schemes. These measures aim to enhance agricultural productivity, ensure food security, and contribute to sustainable economic development in Nigeria.

The broad objective of this study is to examine impact of trade openness on manufacturing sector performance in Nigeria. This study investigates the intricate relationships among manufacturing value added (MAN), trade openness (TOP), exchange rate (LNEXR), interest rate (LNIR), imports (IMP), and exports (LNXPT) over a 41-year period from 1981 to 2021, employing various econometric techniques. Descriptive statistic was conducted to know the raw nature of all variables, the unit root test using the
Augmented Dicky-fuller test to check for stationarity of the variables. The co-integration analysis using the bounds test was used to check if there is a long run relationship between the variable and the ARDL-ECM approach was used to analyze the data for both the short run and long run analysis. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test confirms that all variables are non-stationary at levels but stationary after first differencing, indicating they are integrated of order one, I(1). The ARDL Bound Test establishes a long-run
equilibrium relationship among the variables, with a computed F-statistic of 10.76345 exceeding the upper bound critical value, confirming co-integration. The Error Correction Model (ECM) indicates that approximately 17% of the previous period's disequilibrium is corrected in the current period. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model reveals that trade openness, interest rates, and exports significantly negatively impact manufacturing value added in the short run, while the exchange rate shows no immediate significant effect. However, past increases in the exchange rate positively influence manufacturing value added in the long run. The findings underscore the complex dynamics of trade and economic policy on domestic manufacturing, highlighting the need for strategic interventions to bolster the manufacturing sector amidst increasing trade openness and fluctuating economic conditions.