OBIANUJU O. NNADOZIE

This study examined the determinants of fiscal sustainability in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. The research motivation stemmed from Nigeria’s ongoing increase in debt levels despite periods of significant oil revenue. Annual time-series data were evaluated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method, which is suitable when dealing with variables that are integrated at mixed orders, I(0) and I(1). Descriptive analysis revealed notable volatility in oil revenue and inflation, highlighting the erratic nature of Nigeria's macroeconomic landscape. Unit root tests confirmed that the variables exhibited a combination of integration orders, while the bounds test verified a long-term equilibrium relationship. Over the long term, oil revenue and economic growth had significant negative impacts on the debt-to-GDP ratio, suggesting that increase in oil revenue and economic output help alleviate the country's debt burden. The interest rate, although negative, had a less straightforward effect on debt, while inflation displayed a weak and marginal influence. Short-term dynamics from the Error Correction Model (ECM) indicated that deviations from equilibrium are quickly corrected, with approximately 77 percent of disequilibrium addressed within one period. Diagnostic tests indicated no presence of serial correlation or heteroskedasticity, implying that the model is well-structured and dependable. The study concludes that effective management of oil revenue and steady economic growth play a crucial role in Nigeria’s debt sustainability. It thus recommends the implementation of sound fiscal policies, diversification of the economy beyond oil, and careful allocation of borrowed resources to ensure long-term macroeconomic stability and sustainable public debt management

This study investigates the efficiency of monetary policies in controlling inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 2000 to 2023 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The analysis incorporates inflation as the dependent variable and Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), broad money supply (M2), exchange rate (EXR), gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign direct investment (FDI) as explanatory variables. The results reveal a stable long-run relationship among the variables, supported by a significantly negative error correction term that indicates rapid adjustment toward equilibrium after short-run shocks.
The findings show that exchange rate movements exert a strong positive and significant influence on inflation in both the short and long run, confirming that currency depreciation remains a major driver of price increases. Conversely, the monetary policy rate exhibits no significant impact on inflation, suggesting weaknesses in Nigeria’s monetary transmission mechanism. Broad money supply demonstrates a negative and significant relationship with inflation, implying that liquidity growth does not immediately fuel inflation and may be absorbed productively in the economy. GDP and FDI display mixed and lagged effects, with long-run impacts that highlight the importance of economic activity and investment in shaping long-term inflation dynamics.
The study concludes that while monetary policy is essential for managing inflation, its effectiveness in Nigeria is constrained by exchange rate instability, structural rigidities, and weak policy transmission. Strengthening monetary fiscal coordination, improving exchange rate management, enhancing financial sector depth, and promoting productive investment are crucial for achieving sustainable price stability.

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic stabilization policies on inflation in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the combined roles of monetary and fiscal policy measures in
promoting price stability. Nigeria’s inflationary pressures; largely influenced by structural challenges, exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal imbalances, and rapid growth in money supply, have prompted repeated policy responses from both the government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The study adopts a quantitative research design and utilizes annual time-series data obtained from the CBN, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the World Bank. TheAutoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to assess the short-run and long-run Effects of key stabilization policy variables, including money supply, GDP, exchange rate, government expenditure, oil price on inflation. The findings indicate that monetary policy variables, especially money supply and interest rate, exert significant long-run influence on inflation, while fiscal policy indicators show mixed but relevant effects depending on the policy environment. The study concludes that although stabilization policies have contributed to reducing inflationary pressures, their overall effectiveness is still hindered by structural weaknesses and inadequate coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. It therefore recommends enhanced policy synergy, improvedtransparency in policy execution, and structural reforms aimed at strengthening the capacity of stabilization policies to achieve sustained price stability in Nigeria.

This study investigates the determinants of unemployment in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and data from 1999 to 2023. The empirical findings reveal that in the short run, population growth and real GDP have a significant
negative impact on unemployment while inflation and government expenditure exhibit a positive and significant effect on unemployment. In the long run, population growth continues to have a significant negative impact on unemployment, inflation remains positively related to unemployment, government expenditure maintains a positive relationship with unemployment
while real GDP has a negative effect on unemployment, underscoring the importance of sustained economic growth in fostering employment. Based on these findings, the study recommends policies aimed at tackling unemployment. Specifically, inflation control measures should be implemented to stabilize prices and support employment-friendly macroeconomic conditions and government expenditure should be efficiently allocated to high-impact sectors such as education, vocational training, and technology-driven industries to maximize job creation.

This study investigates the comparative effects of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022. Using regression analysis, the research examines how changes in investment, oil exports, non-oil exports, and exchange rates impact Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The findings reveal that non-oil exports significantly and positively influence economic growth, emphasizing the necessity of diversifying Nigeria's export base. Conversely, oil exports show a negative but statistically insignificant effect on RGDP, indicating limited impact despite the sector's economic prominence. Additionally, exchange rate depreciations positively affect economic growth by enhancing export competitiveness. However, investment changes do not exhibit a statistically significant effect on RGDP within the model. The study underscores the importance of policies aimed at export diversification, competitive exchange rate management, and investment attraction to foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria. The results suggest that reducing dependence on oil revenues and promoting non-oil sectors are critical for economic resilience and long term development.

This study investigates the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022 and examines whether interest rate adjustments, represented by the Treasury Bill rate, mediate this relationship. Anchored on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), the study utilized annual data from the CBN, NBS, and IMF. Using ADF unit root tests, Johansen Cointegration, VECM estimation, and the Baron and Kenny mediation framework supported by the Sobel–Goodman test, the analysis confirmed a significant long-run relationship among fiscal deficit, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply. Fiscal deficit exerted a strong positive and persistent influence on inflation, while money supply further intensified inflationary pressures.
The results also showed that the Treasury Bill rate and exchange rate had weak and statistically insignificant effects on inflation. Mediation analysis revealed that interest rate adjustments account for only 27.6% of the total effect, indicating partial mediation and limited monetary policy effectiveness under fiscal dominance. Overall, the findings suggest that inflation in Nigeria is largely driven by fiscal imbalances rather than monetary tightening. The study highlights the need for improved fiscal discipline, strengthened policy coordination, and reforms aimed at enhancing macroeconomic stability.

This study investigates the impact of infrastructure investment, with a specific focus on the electrical sector, on industrial production in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. Utilizing an Error Correction Model (ECM), the research examines both short-term and long-term dynamics between infrastructure development and macroeconomic outcomes. The findings reveal that increased investment in electricity infrastructure significantly boosts industrial production, underscoring the crucial role of enhancing electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. A positive relationship between electricity generated and industrial output further highlights the importance of expanding electricity generation capacity. Conversely, electricity consumption shows an unexpected negative, albeit statistically insignificant, relationship with industrial production, indicating the need for optimizing consumption patterns. The study also finds that higher interest rates positively influence industrial output, while the impact of consumer price index changes remains statistically insignificant. These results emphasize the necessity for policies that prioritize electricity infrastructure investment, promote energy efficiency, and support regulatory reforms to foster sustainable industrial growth in Nigeria.