NON-OIL EXPORTS

This study investigates the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria between 1995 and 2024. Using annual time series data and econometric techniques such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and the Error Correction Model (ECM), the study examines both short-run and long-run dynamics among key variables including non-oil exports (NOX), real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign exchange earnings (FX), employment (EMP), inflation (INF), and exchange rate (EXR). The cointegration results confirm the existence of long-run relationships among the variables. Findings from the ECM indicate that non-oil exports have a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth and employment, while they significantly enhance foreign exchange earnings. Exchange rate fluctuations exhibit a significant negative effect on RGDP but a positive effect on employment in the short run, whereas inflation remains insignificant across models. The results suggest that although non-oil exports contribute meaningfully to foreign exchange generation, their potential to stimulate broad-based economic growth and job creation has not been fully realized. The study recommends policies that promote export diversification, value addition, exchange rate stability, infrastructure development, and employment-oriented industrialization to strengthen the link between non-oil exports and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria

This study investigates the comparative effects of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022. Using regression analysis, the research examines how changes in investment, oil exports, non-oil exports, and exchange rates impact Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The findings reveal that non-oil exports significantly and positively influence economic growth, emphasizing the necessity of diversifying Nigeria's export base. Conversely, oil exports show a negative but statistically insignificant effect on RGDP, indicating limited impact despite the sector's economic prominence. Additionally, exchange rate depreciations positively affect economic growth by enhancing export competitiveness. However, investment changes do not exhibit a statistically significant effect on RGDP within the model. The study underscores the importance of policies aimed at export diversification, competitive exchange rate management, and investment attraction to foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria. The results suggest that reducing dependence on oil revenues and promoting non-oil sectors are critical for economic resilience and long term development.