IMPACT OF NON-OIL EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1994-2024 )

This study investigates the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria between 1995 and 2024. Using annual time series data and econometric techniques such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and the Error Correction Model (ECM), the study examines both short-run and long-run dynamics among key variables including non-oil exports (NOX), real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign exchange earnings (FX), employment (EMP), inflation (INF), and exchange rate (EXR). The cointegration results confirm the existence of long-run relationships among the variables. Findings from the ECM indicate that non-oil exports have a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth and employment, while they significantly enhance foreign exchange earnings. Exchange rate fluctuations exhibit a significant negative effect on RGDP but a positive effect on employment in the short run, whereas inflation remains insignificant across models. The results suggest that although non-oil exports contribute meaningfully to foreign exchange generation, their potential to stimulate broad-based economic growth and job creation has not been fully realized. The study recommends policies that promote export diversification, value addition, exchange rate stability, infrastructure development, and employment-oriented industrialization to strengthen the link between non-oil exports and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria