ECONOMIC GROWTH

This study examines the impact of urbanization on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981 to 2024 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach. Gross domestic product (GDP) was used as the dependent variable, while urbanization (URB), population (POP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation (INF) served as explanatory variables. The study employed unit root tests to determine the stationarity of the variables, followed by ARDL bounds testing to investigate the existence of a long-run co-integration relationship among the variables.

Short-run ARDL estimates showed that past values of GDP, urbanization, population, and FDI significantly affect current economic growth, while inflation has a marginally negative impact. Long-run estimates revealed that urbanization and FDI positively influence GDP, whereas population growth and inflation negatively affect economic performance. The error correction term was negative and statistically significant, demonstrating the model’s ability to correct deviations from long-run equilibrium.

Diagnostic tests confirmed the robustness of the model, with no evidence of heteroskedasticity or serial correlation, and the R-squared and F-statistic values indicated strong explanatory power. Based on these findings, the study concludes that
urbanization and stable FDI inflows are critical drivers of economic growth, while population growth and inflation require careful management. Policy recommendations include planned urban development, promotion of sustainable foreign investment, population management, and macroeconomic stability to ensure that urbanization contributes positively to Nigeria’s economic development.

This study investigates the role of industrialization in driving economic growth in Nigeria, focusing on key trends, relationships, and policy implications. The research is guided by four
main objectives: to examine the trend in industrial production, assess the trend in economic growth, estimate the relationship between industrialization and economic growth, and provide appropriate policy recommendations. Through the analysis of historical data and the application of econometric techniques, the study uncovers the fluctuating nature of industrial output and its limited but positive impact on Nigeria’s overall economic performance. Despite efforts to promote industrial development, challenges such as infrastructural deficits, policy inconsistencies, and weak institutional support have hindered the sector’s potential to significantly boost economic growth. The findings suggest that a strategic and sustained industrialization agenda—complemented by targeted investments, policy coherence, and enhanced public-private collaboration—is essential to unlocking Nigeria’s economic potential and achieving long-term growth.

The exchange rate is a key macroeconomic factor that affects international trade and the real economy of each country. This study made use of annual data of Nigeria from 1981-2019 to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria and the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) was used to examine the relationship. The study found that the level of foreign direct investment positively and significantly affects economic growth in Nigeria, the level of government expenditure positively and significantly affects economic growth in Nigeria and the level of exchange rate volatility which is the key independent variable in the study was found to have a negative and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that in order to regulate the tendencies of exchange rate volatility, The government should diversify the economy as well as increase industrialization and manufacturing activities , which will help reduce the pressure on the currency as the dependency effect would be reduced

This study investigates the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria between 1995 and 2024. Using annual time series data and econometric techniques such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and the Error Correction Model (ECM), the study examines both short-run and long-run dynamics among key variables including non-oil exports (NOX), real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign exchange earnings (FX), employment (EMP), inflation (INF), and exchange rate (EXR). The cointegration results confirm the existence of long-run relationships among the variables. Findings from the ECM indicate that non-oil exports have a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth and employment, while they significantly enhance foreign exchange earnings. Exchange rate fluctuations exhibit a significant negative effect on RGDP but a positive effect on employment in the short run, whereas inflation remains insignificant across models. The results suggest that although non-oil exports contribute meaningfully to foreign exchange generation, their potential to stimulate broad-based economic growth and job creation has not been fully realized. The study recommends policies that promote export diversification, value addition, exchange rate stability, infrastructure development, and employment-oriented industrialization to strengthen the link between non-oil exports and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria

This study aims to investigate the dynamics of economic growth in Nigeria, with a focus on the role of foreign remittances, money supply, exchange rate, and inflation rate as component variables. The research is crucial in understanding the broader economic implications of foreign remittances in a developing country context. The study uses secondary time series data covering the period 1994 to 2022. This study used descriptive statistics, correlational and regression analysis to analyze the data. The descriptive statistics are used to describe the data set using the mean, maximum and minimum values, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and the Jarque-Bera statistic. Skewness, kurtosis and the Jarque-Bera statistics are use to explain the distribution properties of the data. The correlation analysis is used to determine the linear relationship between the variables pair wisely. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique is used to determine the effect of the explanatory variables on the outcome variable. The empirical result revealed that foreign remittances have a significant impact on economic
growth in Nigeria. It was found that money supply has a positive significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria It was discovered that exchange rate has a positive significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study found that inflation rate has an insignificant impact on economic growth in Nigeria.

This study analyses the interrelationships between fiscal deficit, domestic debt and economic growth in Nigeria. Using data between the period of 1981-2019. This study employed the use of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Co Integration test, Vector Error Correction (VEC) Lag Exclusion Wald Tests, Vector Error Correction (VECM) technique and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis. The study utilized fiscal deficit, domestic debt, foreign debt and tax revenue as the independent variable used for the study. The findings proved that there is a negative and significant relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth in Nigeria. It also revealed that budget deficit, foreign debt and tax revenue have significant impact on growth while domestic debt has an insignificant impact. The study recommends that for a desired level of growth to be accomplished in the country, the issue of budgeting, debt and taxation in Nigeria must be critically addressed with a view to optimizing economic
welfare.