N. L ARODOYE

GOVERNMENT DEBT, REVENUE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

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Abstract
This study investigated the impact of government debt, revenue, and their relationship with economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1990 to 2024. It aimed to examine the effects of government debt on economic growth, the influence of government revenue on growth, the impact of debt on Nigeria’s annual GDP growth rate, and the role of internally generated revenue. Secondary data were collected primarily from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Debt Management Office, National Bureau of Statistics, and World Bank databases. The methodology adopted included an econometric model estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and panel fixed effects to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of government fiscal variables on economic growth. Results revealed that government debt had a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth in the short run, implying that borrowing provided some support to government sustainability but lacked robust growth stimulation. In the long run, debt demonstrated a negative and insignificant relationship with growth, suggesting potential crowding-out effects and fiscal risks that align with some extant Nigerian literature. Government revenue showed a positive and statistically significant association with economic growth, confirming its critical role in funding development projects and stimulating the economy. Internally generated revenue also had a positive yet statistically insignificant impact, indicating sensitivity in tax policy implementation to avoid negatively affecting production and economic activity. Based on these findings, it was recommended that the government implement prudent debt management policies to ensure borrowing supports growth without generating harmful longterm consequences. Tax authorities were advised to improve revenue collection efficiency by adopting fair tax policies that avoid overburdening taxpayers, thus encouraging sustainable economic expansion. Policymakers should focus on enhancing government revenue via effective fiscal measures to provide sufficient funds for infrastructure and development. Additionally, relevant agencies needed to strengthen internally generated revenue systems by promoting transparency and fairness, which would improve economic stability and growth prospects. These steps would help balance the benefits of government fiscal interventions while minimizing risks to Nigeria’s economic future
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