IMPACT OF NIGERIAN STOCK EXCHANGE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF NIGERIAN ECONOMY
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Abstract
development in Nigeria, with GDP growth rate as a proxy for economic development. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), the study assesses both the short-run and long-run effects of key stock market and economic indicators, including market capitalization (MC), all-share index (ASI), inflation rate (INF), monetary policy rate (MPR), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), and foreign direct investment (FDI). The findings reveal that the All Share This study examines the relationship between stock market performance and economic Index (ASI) has a persistent positive and significant impact on GDP growth, indicating that stock market performance plays a crucial role in economic development. Conversely, inflation (INF) and market capitalization (MC) exhibit persistent negative and significant impacts, suggesting that rising stock market values do not necessarily translate into real economic growth. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and foreign direct investment (FDI) have negative and insignificant effects in the short run, while FDI exhibits a positive but insignificant long-run impact. Additionally, the monetary policy rate (MPR) has a negative and insignificant short-run impact on GDP growth. The study concludes that while stock market performance is important for economic development, inflation control, efficient capital allocation, and strategic investment policies are necessary to sustain long-term growth. Policy recommendations include enhancing financial market efficiency, ensuring productive capital allocation, attracting growth-driven FDI, and implementing balanced monetary policies to support economic stability. Keywords: Stock Market, Economic Development, ARDL, Market Capitalization, Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Nigeria.
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