DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

This research study was carried out to determine the impact of population growth on Nigerian Economy. The specific objectives of the study include investigating the relationship and effect of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria. This research study investigated the impact of population growth on the Nigerian economy using annual time series data for the period 1981 to 2024. The data was extracted from CBN statistical publications (2024), National Bureau of Statistics (2024). ADF technique in testing the unit root property of the series was utilized, the ARDL estimation technique was used to analyze the data. The research findings indicate the following: One year lag coefficient of Real Gross Domestic Product has a positive impact on the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. Population growth has a positive impact on the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. Poverty Head Count Ratio has a positive relationship with the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. Unemployment rate has a positive relationship with the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. Inflation rate has a positive impact on the current value of Real Gross Domestic Product. The prices of goods and services increases the value for goods and services also increase which eventually cause increase in the value of Real Gross Domestic Product

Energy insecurity remains one of the most pressing developmental challenges in Nigeria, with frequent power outages, high dependence on fossil fuels, and escalating environmenta degradation undermining economic growth and sustainable living. Solar energy, as a clean and renewable source, presents a viable alternative to the nation’s unreliable electricity supply. This study therefore examines the determinants of solar energy adoption in Benin City, Nigeria. Specifically, it investigates the economic, environmental, technical, social, and policy-related factors influencing adoption, as well as the level of awareness, affordability, and perceived long-term benefits among residents and businesses. The study employed a cross-sectional survey design, using stratified random sampling to select two hundred (200) respondents across different parts of Benin City. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, while descriptive and inferential statistical methods, including multinomial logistic regression, were used for the analysis. The study revealed that although awareness of solar
energy and its environmental benefits is relatively high, actual adoption remains moderate due to economic constraints, limited access to financing, and inadequate technical support. The study further established that income level, cost of installation, access to credit facilities, government incentives, and product quality are among key determinants of adoption, collectively accounting for a significant variation in solar energy adoption in Benin City. The model fit validates the findings, with a high Nagelkerke R² value (0.885), indicating that the identified economic, environmental, social, and policy factors collectively exert approximately 89% influence on solar energy adoption in Benin City. The study recommends increased government intervention through targeted subsidies, lowinterest solar financing, and effective awareness campaigns to enhance public understanding and affordability. Strengthening technical capacity, ensuring product quality, and improving policy frameworks are also recommended as crucial to scaling solar energy adoption in Benin City. By addressing these barriers, solar energy adoption
can serve as a sustainable pathway toward achieving energy security, economic resilience, and environmental sustainability in Benin City and by extension Nigeria.

This study examines the impact of food crises on children's health in Nigeria over the period 1981–2024, amid recurring economic shocks, conflicts, pandemics, and policy failures that have exacerbated food insecurity and malnutrition. Drawing on secondary data from the World Bank and employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) approaches, the research investigates the short-run and long-run relationships between food crises, child health indicators (such as stunting, wasting, and under-five mortality), and social factors including income, health expenditure, sanitation, education, and poverty.
The findings indicate that food crises have a significant positive association with deteriorated child health outcomes, intensifying vulnerability to infections, cognitive impairments, and mortality, with nearly 45% of under-five deaths linked to malnutrition. Income and sanitation exhibit negative effects on child health, underscoring the roles of economic inequality and inadequate infrastructure in perpetuating cycles of poverty and poor health. However, education and health expenditure show insignificant impacts, highlighting implementation gaps and inefficiencies in policy delivery. Cointegration tests confirm long-run equilibrium relationships, while diagnostic checks affirm model robustness. The study concludes that Nigeria's protracted food crises pose a critical threat to national development, necessitating integrated, evidence-based interventions. Recommendations emphasize strengthening agricultural resilience, poverty alleviation, sanitation infrastructure, educational reforms, and efficient health investments to mitigate malnutrition and foster sustainable child health improvements.

This study examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and Nigeria's export performance with the overarching objective of assessing their impact on the country's economic development. The research aims to determine the extent to which exchange rate changes influence total exports and, consequently, the overall economic growth of Nigeria. Employing secondary data from the statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the analysis focuses on the relationship between exchange rates(EXR), interest rates(INT), inflation rates(INF), and trade balance(EX) as independent variables, and the GDP as the dependent variable. The findings reveal that inflation rates negatively affect GDP, while interest rates have a positive impact. Exchange rate volatility exhibits a negative correlation with GDP growth. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations significantly influence Nigeria’s economic performance, particularly its production capacity. Therefore, the implementation of an effective exchange rate regime is imperative. Such a regime would mitigate inflationary pressures enhance Nigeria’s balance of trade and bolster its production capabilities, ultimately fostering positive economic growth

This study investigates the comparative effects of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022. Using regression analysis, the research examines how changes in investment, oil exports, non-oil exports, and exchange rates impact Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The findings reveal that non-oil exports significantly and positively influence economic growth, emphasizing the necessity of diversifying Nigeria's export base. Conversely, oil exports show a negative but statistically insignificant effect on RGDP, indicating limited impact despite the sector's economic prominence. Additionally, exchange rate depreciations positively affect economic growth by enhancing export competitiveness. However, investment changes do not exhibit a statistically significant effect on RGDP within the model. The study underscores the importance of policies aimed at export diversification, competitive exchange rate management, and investment attraction to foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria. The results suggest that reducing dependence on oil revenues and promoting non-oil sectors are critical for economic resilience and long term development.

The study analysed the impact of currency devaluation on economic growth in Nigeria, using secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins, World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The data covered a period from 1981-2021. Auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and multiple regressions analysis were employed to examine the relationship between the dependent variable (GDP) and independent variables (Exchange rate, inflation rate, foreign direct investment and Investment). Findings reveals that GDP has a negative relationship with inflation rate, FDI, GFCF and a positive relationship with exchange rate. In conclusion, currency devaluation has significant and statistical impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This study recommends that government should employ the use of managed exchange rate system to enhance competitiveness without causing excessive depreciation since currency devaluation positively influences economic growth.

This study investigates the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022 and examines whether interest rate adjustments, represented by the Treasury Bill rate, mediate this relationship. Anchored on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), the study utilized annual data from the CBN, NBS, and IMF. Using ADF unit root tests, Johansen Cointegration, VECM estimation, and the Baron and Kenny mediation framework supported by the Sobel–Goodman test, the analysis confirmed a significant long-run relationship among fiscal deficit, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply. Fiscal deficit exerted a strong positive and persistent influence on inflation, while money supply further intensified inflationary pressures.
The results also showed that the Treasury Bill rate and exchange rate had weak and statistically insignificant effects on inflation. Mediation analysis revealed that interest rate adjustments account for only 27.6% of the total effect, indicating partial mediation and limited monetary policy effectiveness under fiscal dominance. Overall, the findings suggest that inflation in Nigeria is largely driven by fiscal imbalances rather than monetary tightening. The study highlights the need for improved fiscal discipline, strengthened policy coordination, and reforms aimed at enhancing macroeconomic stability.

The study aimed to critically assess the relationship between capital formation and economic development in Nigeria and potential avenues for leveraging capital formation to achieve long term and inclusive economic development, focusing on the period from 1991 to 2024. Specifically, the study examined if capital formation and other macroeconomic variables such as foreign direct investment, lending rate and trade openness determine economic growth in Nigeria. The study conducted a descriptive statistic, correlation analysis, the unit root test using the Augmented Dicky-fuller test to check for stationarity of the variables, the co-integration analysis using the bounds test, to check if there is a long run relationship between the variable and the ARDL-ECM approach to analyze the data for both the short run and long run. The findings showed that all variables employed are co-integrated in the long run and thus, have a long-term relationship. It was found that capital formation has a significant impact on economic growth in the short run but dos not have a significant impact in the long run, FDI and trade openness both have a positive and significant impact on economic growth rate. However, lending rate has no impact on economic growth rate in Nigeria during the specified period. The study therefore recommends that that the government should ensure that capital formation initiatives are sustainable and efficient; focusing on long-term benefits, introduce policies to increase the level of economic development in the country such as increasing the level of infrastructure and policies to further improve trade by increasing the productive base of the country to increase exports and limiting trade restrictions.

This study sought to examine the effect of exchange rate on foreign private capital inflows in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to analyse the effect of exchange rate on foreign private capital inflows in Nigeria; examine influence of exchange rate volatility on foreign private capital inflows in Nigeria; and investigate the effect of domestic interest rate on foreign private capital inflows in Nigeria. The study used secondary time series data covering the period 1981 to 2019. The study adopted the Augmented Dickey-fuller unit root test, Bounds Cointegration test, Granger causality test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling technique. The findings of this study showed that there exists a unidirectional relationship between exchange rate and foreign private capital inflow. It was discovered that a bi-causal relationship exists between foreign private capital inflow and exchange rate volatility. It was revealed that causality runs from foreign private capital inflow to financial deepening and not vice versa. It was discovered that the effect of exchange rate on foreign capital inflow is mixed. It was revealed that exchange M rate volatility has a positive significant influence on foreign private capital inflows. Thus, the study recommended that the Nigerian monetary authority should come u with policy strategy to curb the volatility of the exchange rate so as to encourage foreign private capital flows into the country. Also, appropriate macroeconomic policies should be put in place to boost the size of the domestic market. An increase the real gross domestic product will stimulate foreign capital inflow into the economy. Finally, a sound financial sector is a basic pre-requisite for assessing the absorptive capacity of the domestic economy to inflow of foreign capital. Therefore, the Nigerian government through the various financial sector regulatory agencies should step up their supervisory role in the sector in order to boost the soundness of the financial sector of the economy

The study examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation and agricultural output on the agricultural exports of Nigeria (1981-2020). Error Correction mechanism was adopted to examine the relationship among the variables in the study that is the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The variables were also found to have an overall significant effect on Nigerian agricultural export from the F-statistic obtained in the model. The study found that the level of agricultural output has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in both short run and long run. Also, the study found that exchange rate has a negative and significant impact on economic growth in both short run and long run. Also, the study found that level of import has a negative and significant impact on agricultural export in the short run and long run. Also, the study found that real interest rate has a negative and non significant impact on agricultural export in both short run and long run. Finally, the study found that investment has a positive and significant impact on agricultural export in both long and short run. Therefore, the study recommends that government should provide basic amenities like electricity in order to enhance storage of agricultural produce which in turn boosts output. Also the government should adjust trade exchange rate policies to favor farmers as this would encourage farmers to increase their output and in turn increase exportation.