DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

This study examines the effect of public debt on investment in Nigeria from 1981 to 2023. The study focuses on how domestic and external borrowings influence gross fixed capital formation, which represents investment performance. Annual data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Debt Management Office, World Bank, and National Bureau of Statistics. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were applied to capture both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables, supported by standard diagnostic tests for reliability and consistency.
The findings reveal that both domestic and external debts exert a negative and significant impact on investment in Nigeria. Inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate volatility were also found to weaken investment performance. The results suggest that rising public debt has not been effectively used to stimulate productive investment, as debt servicing continues to consume a large portion of government revenue. The study recommends prudent borrowing, improved debt management, and channelling of borrowed funds into productive sectors to enhance sustainable investment growth in Nigeria.

This study examines the impact of urbanization on economic growth in Nigeria. The
objectives here are to assess the predictive relationship between urban population growth and Nigeria’s real GDP from 1990 to 2024, to examine the short-run and long-run effects of urbanization on Nigeria’s industrial output using econometric models, to investigate how urban infrastructure factors (e.g., electricity access, road density) mediate the impact of urbanization on economic performance across major Nigerian cities.This study employs the auto regressive distribution lag (ARDL) model to analyze the impact of urbanization quantity, urbanization concentration, infrastructure, human capital and unemployment rate on urbanization and its effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The study made use of time series data from 1990 to 2024 with data sourced from the world bank world development indicator.From the findings of this study, it shows that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and its explanatory variables, while excessive concentration in the cities negatively affect growth in the long run, education shows a negative short run effect but is insignificant in the long run while infrastructure when combined with urbanization especially in large cities enhances growth.Overall, the results highlight urbanization as a key driver of growth, with infrastructure, education, and labour market conditions shaping its effectiveness.

This research examines how health expenditure influences maternal mortality in Nigeria
by utilizing annual data from 2000 to 2022. Despite various reforms and investments in
the health sector, maternal mortality continues to be a significant public health issue in
Nigeria. The study explores the effects of key indicators such as Government Health
Expenditure (expressed as a percentage of GDP), Out-of-Pocket Expenditure, Literacy
Rate (serving as a proxy for female educational attainment), Workforce Migration Index
(indicating health worker migration), and Fertility Rate on the Maternal Mortality Ratio
(MMR). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach is used, given
its appropriateness for analyzing variables that are integrated at different orders, I(0)
and I(1). The findings reveal both short-term and long-term relationships between the components of health expenditure and maternal mortality. In particular, government health spending exhibits a negative correlation with maternal mortality, indicating that increases in public investment can lead to reductions in MMR over time. Conversely, high out-of-pocket expenses and increasing fertility rates are linked to higher maternal mortality, highlighting deficiencies in financial risk protection and reproductive health services. The study concludes that to achieve substantial decreases in maternal mortality in Nigeria, sustained increases in government health funding, a reduction in household healthcare costs, and enhancements in female education are crucial. Recommended policies include bolstering the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), addressing the migration of health workers, and broadening maternal health initiatives aimed at atrisk populations

The persistent macroeconomic challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa have drawn increasing attention to the dual roles of government expenditure and external debt in shaping the region’s economic trajectory. While public spending is often expected to drive growth, its actual impact is frequently undermined by inefficiency, corruption, and fiscal mismanagement. Similarly, although, external debt can help finance development, excessive borrowing may hinder economic growth due to debt overhang. The aim of the study was to examine the effects of government expenditure and external debt on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used a panel dataset of 30 Sub-Saharan African countries covering the period 2009 - 2023. A two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) approach was used to account for potential endogeneity and dynamic effects, while a Panel Threshold Model (PTM) was applied to explore non-linear relationships between external debt and economic growth. Key institutional indicators, including control of corruption, were incorporated to capture their mediating role in shaping the impact of government expenditure on economic welfare. The study found that government expenditure had a negative effect on economic growth but exerted a positive influence on economic welfare when moderated by institutional quality. Furthermore, external debt exhibited a threshold effect, with positive impacts on growth at
levels below 51% of GDP and negative impacts beyond 75%, supporting the debt overhang hypothesis. The study recommended improving fiscal governance, strengthening anticorruption measures, and adopting prudent debt management strategies to enhance the effectiveness of public spending and promote sustainable economic growth and development
in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study investigated the impact of international trade on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. The research was motivated by the persistent challenges of overdependence on crude oil exports, trade imbalances, and inconsistent policy outcomes that have impeded Nigeria’s economic growth. Anchored on the Heckscher-Ohlin Theory of Factor Endowment and Adam Smith’s Absolute Advantage Theory, the study examined the dynamic relationship between exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation as they influence Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The study adopted an ex-post facto research design, utilizing secondary data sourced from the World Bank Development Outlook (2024) and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2023). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to analyze both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test revealed a mixture of I(0) and I(1) variables, confirming the suitability of the ARDL model. The findings showed evidence of long-run cointegration among international trade indicators and Nigeria’s economic growth. The long-run estimates indicated that exports had a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP growth, while imports exerted a negative and significant impact on GDP growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) was found to be positive but statistically insignificant. Inflation was negative and statistically significant, suggesting that persistent price instability undermines macroeconomic performance. The study concludes that international trade significantly affects Nigeria’s macroeconomic performance. It recommends diversification of the export base beyond oil, improved local manufacturing capacity, better investment policies to attract productive FDI, and effective inflation management to sustain economic growth and stability

This study analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market performance in Nigeria from 1985 to 2022, emphasizing the connections between stock market performance (SMP) as measurred by All-Share index, Gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (INFL), and exchange rate (EXR). Control variables used in this study are total government expenditure (TGE) and interest rate (INTR). The study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology to explore both the short-term and long-term dynamics among these variables. The ARDL Bounds co-integration test validates a long-term relationship among the variables, supporting the use of ARDL analyses. The findings indicate that GDP has a significant positive impact on SMP in both the short term and long term, suggesting that economic growth enhances investor confidence and market performance. In contrast, inflation and exchange rate was found to be negative but insignificant. The study concludes GDP significantly affects stock market performance and that implementing effective economic policies to promote GDP growth, is vital for cultivating a strong stock market environment in Nigeria. These findings enhance the understanding of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market performance, offering important insights for both policymakers and investors.

This study examined the impact of remittances on the health sector in Nigeria for the period of 1981-2019. The main objective of this research work is to examine the impact of remittances on the health sector in Nigeria. The study used Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) to examine the relationship between remittances and health sector in Nigeria. The study found the level of remittances has both a positive and significant impact on the health sector both in the short and long run. Also, level of expenditure on education was found to have both a positive and significant impact on the health sector both in the short and long run. Also, level of physical capital was found to have a positive and significant impact on the health sector both in the short and but a positive and insignificant impacton it in the long run. Finally, Real GDP was found to have a positive and significant on the health sector in the short run but a negative and insignificant impact on the health sector in the long run. Seeing that remittances is a catalyst to the health sector, the study therefore recommends that the costs of transfer of remittances can be waived or significantly reduced if it is specifically tagged for healthcare. Still building on the defiscalization of migrant savings linked to payments for healthcare in source
country in order to attract more remittances from abroad. Also, the government should constantly review upward of budgetary allocation to education sector in Nigeria. This will increase health education of Nigerians and in the long run boost the health sector and economy at large.

The study analzsed how agricultural output impact economic growth in Nigeria, from 1981 to 2023. The study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), unit root test, cointegration test and diagnostic tests such as heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation The study found out that there is a positie relationship between real gross domestic product growth rate and crop production, which satisfies our apriori expectation., Similarly, the study shows that there is a positive relationship between real gross domestic product growth rate and fishery, forestry, and livestock’s which satisfies our apriori expectation, finally the study recommended that invest in agricultural infrastructure, ensure agricultural diversification, promote sustainable forestry practices and support fisheries sector development.

This study investigated the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on economic development in Nigeria. the study adopted the expo facto research design to source aggregate data from Central Bank of Nigeria CBN statistical bulletin from 1984 to 2022. The data was analyzed using the Johansen co-integration test, serial correlation tests, Ramsey test, Unit Root Test ADF, and the Error Correction Mechanism ECM. The result showed that exchange rate reset have a positive significant impact on economic development in Nigeria. The result also showed that inflation and institutional quality has significant impact on exchange rate fluctuation in Nigeria, and that there exist bi-causality between exchange rate fluctuation and economic development in Nigeria. The study recommended that for small-scale enterprises to engage in raw materials processing for export
promotion, the government should provide incentives, such as loan subsidies and other forms of support. the government ought to support export-oriented policies in order to a positive exchange rate balance.

This study examines the impact of migrant remittances on aggregate demandinNigeria from 1990 to 2020, analyzing key economic variables such as migrant remittances (MGR), consumption (CON), investment (INV), population growthrate(PGR), interest rate (INTR), exchange rate (EXCR), and real gross domestic product (RGDP). Findings reveal a surprising negative relationship between migrant remittances andconsumption, contrasting with the positive correlation between populationgrowthrate and consumption, indicating the potential demographic dividend of Nigeria'syouthful population. Additionally, a positive correlation between real GDPandconsumption underscores the importance of sustainable economic growth. Moreover, the study identifies a positive relationship between migrant remittancesand investment, highlighting their role as a source of capital for investment inNigeria. These insights emphasize the need for nuanced policy approaches that considerfactors like exchange rates, interest rates, population growth, and economicdiversification. Policymakers should explore avenues to channel remittances intoproductive investments and prioritize initiatives supporting sustainable economicdevelopment to enhance living standards for Nigerians.