THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
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Abstract
This study examines the impact of urbanization on economic growth in Nigeria. The
objectives here are to assess the predictive relationship between urban population growth and Nigeria’s real GDP from 1990 to 2024, to examine the short-run and long-run effects of urbanization on Nigeria’s industrial output using econometric models, to investigate how urban infrastructure factors (e.g., electricity access, road density) mediate the impact of urbanization on economic performance across major Nigerian cities.This study employs the auto regressive distribution lag (ARDL) model to analyze the impact of urbanization quantity, urbanization concentration, infrastructure, human capital and unemployment rate on urbanization and its effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The study made use of time series data from 1990 to 2024 with data sourced from the world bank world development indicator.From the findings of this study, it shows that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and its explanatory variables, while excessive concentration in the cities negatively affect growth in the long run, education shows a negative short run effect but is insignificant in the long run while infrastructure when combined with urbanization especially in large cities enhances growth.Overall, the results highlight urbanization as a key driver of growth, with infrastructure, education, and labour market conditions shaping its effectiveness.
objectives here are to assess the predictive relationship between urban population growth and Nigeria’s real GDP from 1990 to 2024, to examine the short-run and long-run effects of urbanization on Nigeria’s industrial output using econometric models, to investigate how urban infrastructure factors (e.g., electricity access, road density) mediate the impact of urbanization on economic performance across major Nigerian cities.This study employs the auto regressive distribution lag (ARDL) model to analyze the impact of urbanization quantity, urbanization concentration, infrastructure, human capital and unemployment rate on urbanization and its effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The study made use of time series data from 1990 to 2024 with data sourced from the world bank world development indicator.From the findings of this study, it shows that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and its explanatory variables, while excessive concentration in the cities negatively affect growth in the long run, education shows a negative short run effect but is insignificant in the long run while infrastructure when combined with urbanization especially in large cities enhances growth.Overall, the results highlight urbanization as a key driver of growth, with infrastructure, education, and labour market conditions shaping its effectiveness.
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