MACROECONOMIC

This study examines the impact of key macroeconomic variables interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate on Nigeria’s economic development over the period 2015 to 2024. The research is driven by the persistent macroeconomic instability Nigeria has faced since the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) era, which has contributed to fluctuating development outcomes. While several studies have explored macroeconomic factors and economic growth, limited empirical evidence directly links these variables to economic development using recent data. This study addresses this gap by analysing how macroeconomic volatility influences Nigeria’s development performance. An ex-post facto research design was adopted, using secondary annual data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, and World Bank. GDP growth rate was used as a proxy for economic development, while inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate served as the explanatory variables. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, supported by diagnostic tests to ensure model robustness. Findings reveal that both inflation and interest rates have significant negative effects on economic development, suggesting that rising price levels and borrowing costs hinder productive investment and economic performance. Conversely, exchange rate movements exert a significant positive influence, indicating that currency dynamics play a key role in shaping development outcomes. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power and reliability. The study concludes that Nigeria’s economic development is highly sensitive to macroeconomic volatility and emphasizes the need for stronger policy coordination, institutional reforms, financial-market strengthening, and economic diversification to support sustainable developmen

This study investigated the impact of international trade on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. The research was motivated by the persistent challenges of overdependence on crude oil exports, trade imbalances, and inconsistent policy outcomes that have impeded Nigeria’s economic growth. Anchored on the Heckscher-Ohlin Theory of Factor Endowment and Adam Smith’s Absolute Advantage Theory, the study examined the dynamic relationship between exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation as they influence Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The study adopted an ex-post facto research design, utilizing secondary data sourced from the World Bank Development Outlook (2024) and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2023). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to analyze both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test revealed a mixture of I(0) and I(1) variables, confirming the suitability of the ARDL model. The findings showed evidence of long-run cointegration among international trade indicators and Nigeria’s economic growth. The long-run estimates indicated that exports had a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP growth, while imports exerted a negative and significant impact on GDP growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) was found to be positive but statistically insignificant. Inflation was negative and statistically significant, suggesting that persistent price instability undermines macroeconomic performance. The study concludes that international trade significantly affects Nigeria’s macroeconomic performance. It recommends diversification of the export base beyond oil, improved local manufacturing capacity, better investment policies to attract productive FDI, and effective inflation management to sustain economic growth and stability

This study analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market performance in Nigeria from 1985 to 2022, emphasizing the connections between stock market performance (SMP) as measurred by All-Share index, Gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (INFL), and exchange rate (EXR). Control variables used in this study are total government expenditure (TGE) and interest rate (INTR). The study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology to explore both the short-term and long-term dynamics among these variables. The ARDL Bounds co-integration test validates a long-term relationship among the variables, supporting the use of ARDL analyses. The findings indicate that GDP has a significant positive impact on SMP in both the short term and long term, suggesting that economic growth enhances investor confidence and market performance. In contrast, inflation and exchange rate was found to be negative but insignificant. The study concludes GDP significantly affects stock market performance and that implementing effective economic policies to promote GDP growth, is vital for cultivating a strong stock market environment in Nigeria. These findings enhance the understanding of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market performance, offering important insights for both policymakers and investors.