DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

This study examines the relationship between exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria from 1980 to 2022. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the result shows that there is no long run relationship between exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria. However, exchange rate has significant positive impact on inflation in Nigeria in the short run. In light of the findings, the study recommends that policymakers in Nigeria should implement policies aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate and reducing inflation to promote economic growth and stability

This study investigated the impact of monetary policy on the growth of small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria, with a focus on determining the dynamic responses of each policy on SMEs growth in Nigeria. The model employed in this study is the Autoregressive Distributed lag model (ARDL model) due to the distinction in order of integration. The time frame for this study spanned the years 1981-2019. The study found that money supply has a positive and significant impact on growth of
SMEs at the 5% level of significance, as well as inflation and interest having a negative but significant impact, while exchange plays out not to be a significant factor determining the growth of SMEs. The implication is that the interplay of these variables is important to keep SMEs alive in Nigeria. In response to the dynamics of domestic and global economic events, the policy suggestion is that monetary policy should be designed in such a way that the goal it seeks to attain is clearly and transparently specified. Also, there is a need for a consistent monetary policy framework that should bring about a realistic exchange rate with emphasis on its role to directly promote output and productivity of the SMEs. Exchange rate measures should be considered as a long-term solution to the problem of rising foreign products demand.

This study examines the impact of petroleum subsidy on the consumption of petroleum products in Nigeria from 2000 to 2020 using an Error Correction Model (ECM). The analysis reveals that petroleum subsidies significantly stimulate consumption by enhancing affordability. Surprisingly, higher inflation rates are associated with increased petroleum consumption, challenging conventional economic theory which predicts reduced consumption due to diminished purchasing power. Conversely, the relationship between petroleum prices and consumption is weak and statistically insignificant, suggesting that factors beyond price influence consumer behavior. Additionally, higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita is unexpectedly associated with decreased petroleum consumption, indicating the presence of other influential factors independent of income levels. These findings underscore the complexity of the factors influencing petroleum consumption in Nigeria and highlight the need for evidence-based policymaking. Recommendations include conducting a comprehensive review of subsidy programs, investing in renewable energy, pursuing economic diversification, managing inflation, and strengthening data-driven decision-making to promote sustainable and resilient petroleum consumption patterns while fostering inclusive economic growth and development.

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure on education and economic growth using time-series data from 1981 to 2022. Economic growth is measured by real GDP, while government expenditure on education, gross fixed capital formation, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and exchange rate are included as explanatory variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) -Error Correction Model (ECM) approaches is employed. The findings confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables, as indicated by a negative and statistically significant error correction term. In the short run, government expenditure on education has a negative but insignificant effect on economic growth, suggesting delayed growth impacts. Life expectancy exerts a positive and significant influence on economic growth, while gross fixed capital formation shows a negative and significant effect. Foreign direct investment exhibits mixed effects, and exchange rate changes are found to be insignificant. The speed of adjustment indicates that about 92 percent of short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually. The study concludes that effective human capital development is crucial for sustainable economic growth

The aim of this study is to ascertain the impact of government spendingoneconomic growth in Nigeria with a focus on determining the long run and short runrelationship between government spending and economic growth. Secondaryaimof this study is to ascertain the degree of dependence of economic growth onotherindependent variables of inflation and labour force. The model employedinthisstudy is the OLS and the Error Correction Mechanism.. The time frame for thisstudy spanned between the year 1981-2020. This study , the study showedthat government spending had a beneficial and considerable impact on Nigeria'seconomic development. This will also succeed if every naira allocated for thisindex is wisely spent. The Real Gross Domestic Product is negativelyandnegligibly impacted by capital spending. It demonstrates that the regressionmodel has a negative association with both the coefficient result and the P-Value. Also, it was noted that raising white elephant project spending will only slowtherate of economic growth. Recurrent expenditure for example spending on educationhas a favourable and considerable effect on Nigeria's economic expansion. Thisdemonstrates that an increase in education spending will probably lead to a riseineconomic growth. This will also succeed if every naira allocated for this indexiswisely spent. However, it was suggested that Government spending, both capital and ongoing, needs to be managed and tracked during execution to improve comparablysuccessful outcomes in relation to economic growth. They should see toit that capital and ongoing expenses are appropriately managed so as to improvethecountry's foreign relations as it relates to conducting business with other nations. This will have a long-term effect of stabilising the economy and increasingthevalue of her currency, which will result in economic growth .

This study delves into the intricate relationship between currency hoarding, monetary policy, and inflation within the context of Nigeria for the periodof 1990to 2020. It aims to ascertain if there is a relationship between currency hoardingand inflation in Nigeria and also examine how currency hoarding af ects therelationship between monetary policy and inflation in Nigeria. The study wouldbeof utmost significance to student and other researchers who are interestedinunderstanding how currency hoarding af ects the relationship between monetarypolicy and inflation in Nigeria. It focuses on unravelling how changes in currencyin circulation, interest rates and money supply impact inflation dynamics. Themethodology employed is the Error Correction Model (ECM), analysingdataspanning the years 1990 to 2000. Findings reveal crucial insights. CurrencyinCirculation as a percentage of GDP (CPG) is positively related to inflationrate(INF), signifying that an increase in CPG contributes to inflationary pressures. Conversely, interest rates (INTR), exhibits a statistically significant negativerelationship with inflation, with higher interest rates acting as a counterforcetoinflation. However, changes in money supply (MS) shows no significant impact oninflation. The interaction term (CHMP) was found to have minimal impact oninflation. Policy recommendations drawn from these findings emphasizeabalanced management of currency in circulation to avoid excessive inflation, continued use of interest rates as an ef ective tool for controlling inflation, diversification of monetary policy tools, and the adaptation of holistic economicpolicies. Improved data collection and research, exchange rate management, andtransparent communication are also highlighted as critical factors for ef ectivelyaddressing inflation in Nigeria. In summary, this study uncovers the multifacetednature of inflation dynamics in Nigeria and provides valuable guidance for craftingcomprehensive policies to manage inflation in the nation.

This study evaluates the performance of international trade and its contribution to economic growth in Nigeria over a 34-year period (1990- 2024), utilizing annual time series data and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique. The research addresses the persistent challenge of why Nigeria has struggled to achieve significant economic growth despite its participation in global trade and the implementation of an Export-Led Growth (ELG) strategy. The key objective was to examine the impact of export trade, import trade, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The empirical results established that international trade exerts a mixed influence on Nigeria’s economy. The findings revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between import trade and economic growth, suggesting that the importation of productive capital goods and raw materials is crucial for enhancing domestic production capacity. Similarly, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) had a significant positive impact on economic growth, underscoring the value of a favorable investment climate. Conversely, export trade exhibited a negative and statistically insignificant effect on economic growth, which is primarily attributed to Nigeria's overreliance on crude oil and a weak, undiversified export structure.

This study investigates the effect of health status indicators on labour force participation (LFP) in Nigeria from 2000 to 2021. Key health indicators including Life Expectancy Rate (LNLER), HIV Prevalence Rate (LNHPR), Incidence of Malaria (LNMI), and Population Growth Rate (LNPGR) were analyzed to understand their influence on LFP during the specified period. The Correction analysis is used to analyze the linkages between these variables. Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test was employed to test for stationarity of the variable in the model. Data for this study will be drawn from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin, the world development indicators and the World Bank Database. The findings reveal a significant negative association between HIV prevalence and LFP, indicating adverse effects on workforce participation. However, associations between life expectancy, malaria incidence, and population growth rate with LFP were inconclusive, highlighting the need for further research. Policy recommendations include targeted interventions to combat HIV/AIDS, improved access to healthcare, enhanced malaria
prevention efforts, and support for economic opportunities. Overall, addressing health challenges is crucial for enhancing workforce participation and productivity in Nigeria, requiring evidence-based policies and ongoing monitoring to achieve sustainable development

This study evaluates the effect of government expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data of 30 years (1990-2020). The variables used for the study include recurrent expenditure, expenditure on highways, safety costs, education costs as the independent variables and real GDP as the dependent variable. Four objectives were formulated for the study and four hypotheses were also prepared in line with the objectives. Ex-post-facto research design was employed and the time series data was generated and analysed using regression analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) testing technique and Error Correction Model-based, Granger Causality, unit root test, and cointegration to examine the long run causal effect relationship that exist between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria. The study finds that government expenditure on highway, and expenditure on safety has positive significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria at 5% and 1% levels respectively, government recurrent expenditure has positive and no statistical significant on economic growth, while government expenditure on education has negative and no significant effect on the economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends among others that Government should appropriate lesser portion of its expenditure to recurrent expenditure and pay more attention to capital expenditure as it is the major drive to economic growth.

The study examines the relative impact of government expenditure and external reserves on economic growth in Nigeria within the period 1986-2023, using vector autoregressive methodology. The results revealed that government expenditure on health sector impacts negatively on economic growth while that of education, defence and external reserves impact positively on economic growth. The study recommends that government should increase budgetary allocation and stimulate more funding channels to education and health sectors of the economy. Also, government should allocate more to capital expenditures of education and health than to recurrent expenditures of same in order improve the quality of facilities, materials and equipment in the education and health sectors.