DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

This study examined the determinants of fiscal sustainability in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. The research motivation stemmed from Nigeria’s ongoing increase in debt levels despite periods of significant oil revenue. Annual time-series data were evaluated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method, which is suitable when dealing with variables that are integrated at mixed orders, I(0) and I(1). Descriptive analysis revealed notable volatility in oil revenue and inflation, highlighting the erratic nature of Nigeria's macroeconomic landscape. Unit root tests confirmed that the variables exhibited a combination of integration orders, while the bounds test verified a long-term equilibrium relationship. Over the long term, oil revenue and economic growth had significant negative impacts on the debt-to-GDP ratio, suggesting that increase in oil revenue and economic output help alleviate the country's debt burden. The interest rate, although negative, had a less straightforward effect on debt, while inflation displayed a weak and marginal influence. Short-term dynamics from the Error Correction Model (ECM) indicated that deviations from equilibrium are quickly corrected, with approximately 77 percent of disequilibrium addressed within one period. Diagnostic tests indicated no presence of serial correlation or heteroskedasticity, implying that the model is well-structured and dependable. The study concludes that effective management of oil revenue and steady economic growth play a crucial role in Nigeria’s debt sustainability. It thus recommends the implementation of sound fiscal policies, diversification of the economy beyond oil, and careful allocation of borrowed resources to ensure long-term macroeconomic stability and sustainable public debt management

This study investigates the role of money supply in leveraging financial deepeningtoenhance economic growth in Nigeria. Using the Engle-Granger two-step cointegrationmethod, both long-run and short-run relationships between financial deepening indicators, money supply, and economic growth were analyzed. The study aims to determinewhether financial deepening, when complemented by an adequate money supply, significantly contributes to economic expansion. The findings reveal that financial deepening (measured as CPS/GDP) alone does not significantly impact economic growth in Nigeria, suggesting that credit to the private sector has not been effectively translated into productive investments. Similarly, money supply (M2) does not independently drive economic growth, indicating that liquidity expansion without efficient financial intermediation may not yield substantial economic benefits. The interaction between financial deepening and money supply was also found to be statistically insignificant, implying that Nigeria’s financial system has not fully integrated these financial indicators to stimulate long-term economic growth. In the short run, neither financial deepening normoney supply independently contributes to economic growth. However, the error correction term (ECT) is negative and highly significant, confirming the presence of astable long-run relationship and a relatively fast speed of adjustment toward equilibrium. This suggests that while financial deepening and money supply may not immediately impact growth, their effects become more pronounced over time as structural adjustment stake place. The study concludes that financial deepening and money supply alone are insufficient to drive economic growth in Nigeria. Instead, stronger financial sectorre forms, improved credit allocation mechanisms, enhanced financial intermediation, and macroeconomic stability are needed to ensure that financial deepening translates into sustainable economic growth. The study recommends that policymakers strengthen financial regulations, promote financial inclusion, align monetary policies with real-sector growth, and ensure that credit expansion effectively supports productive activities. These measures will enhance the contribution of financial deepening and money supply to Nigeria’s long-term economic development. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers, financial institutions, and economic stakeholders, emphasizing the need for a more integrated and strategic approach to financial sector development to drive sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

In recent decades, the potential contribution of agriculture to economic growth has been a subject of much controversy among development economists. While some contend that agricultural development is a pre-condition for industrialization, others
strongly disagree and argue for a different path. This study examines the contribution of Agriculture to Economic Growth in Nigeria Empolying the Ordinary Least Square Method (OLS).Results shows that the productivity in agricultural sector has not appreciably impacted positively on the economic growth in Nigeria.

Nigeria, as one of the largest economies in Africa, has long faced significant challenges in harnessing its public debt for sustainable development, particularly in human capital development. The role of governance quality in shaping the relationship between public debt and human capital development is a fundamental but often overlooked aspect of the discourse. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between public debt, governance quality and human capital development in Nigeria. The data used in this study were collected from secondary sources including Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins, World Development Indicators and World Governance Indicators (WGI) databases. The study employed a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimations using annual data from 1997 to 2024 to estimate three models corresponding to the study’s hypotheses.The study found that in the absence of effective governance systems, the long-term effects of public debt on human capital were more detrimental. Shocks to debt variables showed persistent negative response in human capital indicators, particularly in settings were governance quality was weak. Conversely, better-governed environments exhibited more resilient and favourable human capital outcomes, demonstrating the pivotal role of institutional quality in mitigating debt-related vulnerabilities. The study recommended strengthening institutional quality, prioritizing productive debt use and restructuring debt servicing frameworks to free up fiscal space for social investment

This study investigates the role of industrialization in driving economic growth in Nigeria, focusing on key trends, relationships, and policy implications. The research is guided by four
main objectives: to examine the trend in industrial production, assess the trend in economic growth, estimate the relationship between industrialization and economic growth, and provide appropriate policy recommendations. Through the analysis of historical data and the application of econometric techniques, the study uncovers the fluctuating nature of industrial output and its limited but positive impact on Nigeria’s overall economic performance. Despite efforts to promote industrial development, challenges such as infrastructural deficits, policy inconsistencies, and weak institutional support have hindered the sector’s potential to significantly boost economic growth. The findings suggest that a strategic and sustained industrialization agenda—complemented by targeted investments, policy coherence, and enhanced public-private collaboration—is essential to unlocking Nigeria’s economic potential and achieving long-term growth.

The research objective was to investigate how variations in Bank credit to private sector are attributed to monetary and fiscal macroeconomic policies between 1990 and 2023 to inform policy interventions. Quantitative approach was adopted with data sourced from the CBN statistical bulletins. The research employed the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to empirically analyze both short and long run dynamics. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit root test was conducted to determine the stationarity of variables in the study. It was established that the data was a mix of I(0) and I(1) variables indicating that some variables were stationary at levels I(0) while others were stationary after first differencing I(1). Findings revealed that a mixed short run effect exist between both policy instrument and bank credit to
private sector. The study revealed that initially, a percentage increase in both policies significantly increase bank credit to private sector but over time, this expansion causes negative changes in credit availability and cost. In the long run, it was observed that these macroeconomic policies exert significant positive change on bank credit. While these policies have positive effect on credit, their interaction negatively and significantly affect credit growth implying that these policies are complementary. The negative significant effect proves that on the average, an increase in government expenditure worsens the negative impact of interest rate which crowds out private sector investment through credit crunch. While these policies positive and significant
affect bank credit to the private sector as standalone policies, their interaction posits the joint effect and therefore, it is recommended that an accommodating policy environment is a sine qua non for enhancing financial deepening through private sector credit in the Nigeria economy. Therefore, an expansionary fiscal environment while prioritizing productive investments should be accompanied by a moderate monetary environmen

Performance is considered an important factor determining the health of an organization. It is said to have greatly affected many different sectors of the economy and had both positive and negative impacts on the entire country. In light of this, this study examines a diagnostic analysis of the problem areas affecting the companies' profitability and productivity performance in Nigeria.A case study of Access Bank, Zenith bank,UBA, Axa insurance, NEM insurance and AIICO insurance over a five years period (2018-2022). The quick productivity appraisal approach (QPA) is adopted in this study which uses company performance appraisal (CPA) to analyse company productivity and profitability performance. The study adopt secondary data which is extracted from the annual report of each of these companies from the Nigeria Exchange group with emphasis on return on assets (ROA), which is taken as a proxy for profitability and productivity performance. The deterioration or improvement of return on assets is attributed to two major components, which include the ratio of net profit to net sales and the return on assets turnover. The variables considered are cost of goods to sales ratio, operating expenses to sales ratio, total assets turnover, fixed assets turnover will be examined. Trend analysis is used in this study to examine the profitability and productivity measurement of companies. The findings therefore are analysed in three different levels namely; the company level, the i dustry level and the sectoral level. At the company level the result showed that Access bank plc, Zenith bank plc, Axa insurance plc and AIICO insurance plc exhibited low performance with regard to productivity and profitability. Nem insurance plc experience slight increase in productivity and profitability performance while UBA plc experience increasing productivity and profitability performance. At the industry level, it was found that banks and insurance companies suffer a decline in profitability and productivity performance. Finally, at the sectoral level, the financial sector recorded a decline in productivity and profitability. Therefore the priority areas to look into for improvement are production, marketing and administrative department. Therefore, companies, industries and the sector should improve productivity in relation to capital and labour by replace and repairing old machineries and equipments in the production department, reduce the number of managerial staffs, increase salaries and wages of employees and then strengthen market strategies by promoting companies sales and increasing advertisement.

Performance is considered an important factor determining the health of an organization. It is said to have greatly affected many different sectors of the economy and had both positive and negative impacts on the entire country. In light of this, this study examines a diagnostic analysis of the problem areas affecting the companies' profitability and productivity performance in Nigeria. A case study of Access Bank, Zenith bank,
UBA, Axa insurance, NEM insurance and AIICO insurance over a five years period (2018-2022). The quick productivity appraisal approach (QPA) is adopted in this study which uses company performance appraisal (CPA) to analyse company productivity and profitability performance. The study adopt secondary data which is extracted from the annual report of each of these companies from the Nigeria Exchange group with emphasis on return on assets (ROA), which is taken as a proxy for profitability and productivity performance. The deterioration or improvement of return on assets is attributed to two major components, which include the ratio of net profit to net sales and the return on assets turnover. The variables considered are cost of goods to sales ratio, operating expenses to sales ratio, total assets turnover, fixed assets turnover will be examined. Trend analysis is used in this study to examine the profitability and productivity measurement of companies. The findings therefore are analysed in three different levels namely; the company level, the i dustry level and the sectoral level. At the company level the result showed that Access bank plc, Zenith bank plc, Axa insurance plc and AIICO insurance plc exhibited low performance with regard to productivity and profitability. Nem insurance plc experience slight increase in productivity and profitability performance while UBA plc experience increasing productivity and profitability performance. At the industry level, it was found that banks and insurance companies suffer a decline in profitability and productivity performance. Finally, at the sectoral level, the financial sector recorded a decline in productivity and profitability. Therefore the priority areas to look into for improvement are production, marketing and administrative department. Therefore, companies, industries and the sector should improve productivity in relation to capital and labour by replace and repairing old machineries and equipments in the production department, reduce the number of managerial staffs, increase salaries and wages of employees and then strengthen market strategies by promoting companies sales and increasing advertisement.

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic stabilization policies on inflation in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the combined roles of monetary and fiscal policy measures in
promoting price stability. Nigeria’s inflationary pressures; largely influenced by structural challenges, exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal imbalances, and rapid growth in money supply, have prompted repeated policy responses from both the government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The study adopts a quantitative research design and utilizes annual time-series data obtained from the CBN, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the World Bank. TheAutoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to assess the short-run and long-run Effects of key stabilization policy variables, including money supply, GDP, exchange rate, government expenditure, oil price on inflation. The findings indicate that monetary policy variables, especially money supply and interest rate, exert significant long-run influence on inflation, while fiscal policy indicators show mixed but relevant effects depending on the policy environment. The study concludes that although stabilization policies have contributed to reducing inflationary pressures, their overall effectiveness is still hindered by structural weaknesses and inadequate coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. It therefore recommends enhanced policy synergy, improvedtransparency in policy execution, and structural reforms aimed at strengthening the capacity of stabilization policies to achieve sustained price stability in Nigeria.

This study examined the impact of financial liberalization on bank performance in Nigeria for the period of 1981-2019. The main objective of this research work is to examine the impact of financial liberalization on bank performance in Nigeria. The study used Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) to examine the relationship between financial liberalization and bank performance in Nigeria. The study found that the level of financial deepening is positively and significantly related to the real interest rate. Also, money supply is positively and significantly related to the real interest rate. Also, private sector credit was found to be negatively and significantly related to the real interest rate. Finally, loan-deposit ratio is positively related to the real interest rate, it had no significant impact. The study recommends that due consideration should be given to the private sector lending which was one of the variables used to capture financial liberalization in Nigeria. Also, in order to enhance financial deepening (M2/GDP)
contribution to banks profitability in Nigeria, government policy should therefore be geared towards strategically increasing money supply and promoting efficient capital market that will enhance overall economic efficiency, create and expand liquidity, mobilize saving, enhance capital accumulation, transfer resources from traditional
sector to growth inducing sectors (such as manufacturing and industry, agriculture and services sectors) and also promote competent entrepreneurial response in various sectors of the economy. However, it is pertinent to ensure that it (money supply) does not lead to financial excessiveness.