DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

he study employs yearly data from 1980 to 2021 to analyze the Balance of Payments in Nigeria. Its primary objective is to explore the long-term determinants of Nigeria's Balance of Payments. The investigation employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The long-run ARDL regression findings indicate a negative exchange rate effect, while the short-run results show a positive value. Furthermore, the coefficients for FDI, GDP growth, interest rates, and crude oil prices are all positive and statistically significant. The research suggests a compelling case for government intervention to stimulate economic productivity. To foster economic growth, capital investment and expenditure are crucial. The government should entice foreign investment by providing incentives to potential foreign investors. Additionally, the government should enhance security and establish a sense of belonging in the Niger Delta to promote peace and ease of operations in the oil industry.

This paper examines the impact of value added tax and budget deficit on economic performance in Nigeria. The main objective of this study is to examine the interrelationship among value added tax, budget deficit and economic performance proxied as gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria during the period under study. The study utilized aggregate annual data from 1980 to 2018. The data was analyzed with the co-integration/ VECM method. The major findings are: the test for stationary using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) which showed that all the variables except budget deficit were not stationary in levels but were all stationary in first difference. The Johansen-Juselius co-integration techniques were employed in testing for long run equilibrium relationship among the variables and the results indicated that co-integrating relationship was found among the variables. The coefficient of determination reveals that about 88% of the systematic variation in the dependent variable (GDP) is explained by the five independent variables which are value added tax, budget deficit, exchange rate, consumer price index and real interest rate. Also, the vector error correction model (VECM) shows that about 22% of the discrepancy between the actual and the long run or equilibrium value in the real gross domestic product is corrected or eliminated each year. Furthermore, the result revealed that value added tax, budget deficit, and exchange rate has positive and insignificant effect on GDP in Nigeria, while consumer price index has positive and significant impact on GDP in Nigeria based on the magnitude and the level of significance of the coefficient and p-value. The result also reveals that there is long run relationship between value added tax, budget deficit and gross domestic product as evidenced by the VECM. The paper concluded that Government and policy makers should carefully study the present state of the economy and properly estimate the effects of various alternative policy measures of financing fiscal deficits. And also government should supervise the collection of VAT revenue to ensure orderly, fair and equitable dealings in the collection of VAT revenue and to forestall illegal deals by privilege insiders so as to raise the revenue as
effectively and efficiently as possible.

This study investigates the impact of infrastructure investment, with a specific focus on the electrical sector, on industrial production in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. Utilizing an Error Correction Model (ECM), the research examines both short-term and long-term dynamics between infrastructure development and macroeconomic outcomes. The findings reveal that increased investment in electricity infrastructure significantly boosts industrial production, underscoring the crucial role of enhancing electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. A positive relationship between electricity generated and industrial output further highlights the importance of expanding electricity generation capacity. Conversely, electricity consumption shows an unexpected negative, albeit statistically insignificant, relationship with industrial production, indicating the need for optimizing consumption patterns. The study also finds that higher interest rates positively influence industrial output, while the impact of consumer price index changes remains statistically insignificant. These results emphasize the necessity for policies that prioritize electricity infrastructure investment, promote energy efficiency, and support regulatory reforms to foster sustainable industrial growth in Nigeria.

The study employs yearly data from 1980 to 2021 to analyze the Balance of Payments in Nigeria. Its primary objective is to explore the long-term determinants of Nigeria's Balance of Payments. The investigation employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The long-run ARDL regression findings indicate a negative exchange rate effect, while the short-run results show a positive value. Furthermore, the coefficients for FDI, GDP growth, interest rates, and crude oil prices are all positive and statistically significant. The research suggests a compelling case for government intervention to stimulate economic productivity. To foster economic growth, capital investment and expenditure are crucial. The government should entice foreign investment by providing incentives to potential foreign investors. Additionally, the government should enhance security and establish a sense of belonging in the Niger Delta to promote peace and ease of operations in the oil industry

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is often seen as a driver of economic development, bringing capital, technology, and expertise to various sectors, including healthcare. However, its impact on health expenditure in Nigeria remains unclear. This study examines the relationship between FDI and health expenditure in Nigeria using secondary time-series data from 1990 to
2023, sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).The dependency theory forms the theoretical framework of the study. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square regression method was employed to assess whether FDI significantly influences health expenditure while accounting for economic growth and government expenditure. The findings reveal that while FDI shows a positive relationship with health expenditure, its impact is statistically insignificant. In contrast, economic growth significantly contributes to increased health spending, highlighting its crucial role in healthcare financing. Interestingly, government expenditure on health appears to have a negative effect, raising concerns about inefficiencies in public healthcare
investment. Additionally, due to data limitations, the study could not fully assess FDI’s impact on healthcare accessibility, quality, and private sector investment, leaving room for further investigation.

This study empirically examined the impact of external debt burden on infrastructural growth in Nigeria from 1981-2018. Being a time series data, and to avoid spurious regression result in our model, a test for stationary of the data using Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was carried out. The variables; infrastructural growth, domestic debt, external debt, exchange rate, and interest rate were found to be stationary at their first differences. Then, an ARDL Bound Co-integration technique was used to establish if the stationary variables are co-integrated in the long-run. The finding indicates that the variables were found to be co-integrated in the long run. Further, an ARDL was employed to obtain long run coefficients of the respective
regressors. The ARDL result revealed that Domestic Debt (negative impact), Exchange Rate (negative impact), and Interest Rate (positive impact) exerts a
significant influence on infrastructural growth while External Debt (positive impact) was found to be insignificantly related to the growth of infrastructures in Nigeria. It recommends amongst others, that the government should as a matter of priority create more favourable institutional policy and regulatory framework to meet up these challenges. On the whole, there is need for the policymakers to adopt policy framework consistent with availability of external finance that is credibly maintained. Conclusively, infrastructure growth is one of major elements of structural reforms in
developing economy like Nigeria because of its expected large economic and social impact.

This study empirically examined the impact of external debt burden on infrastructural growth in Nigeria from 1981-2018. Being a time series data, and to avoid spurious regression result in our model, a test for stationary of the data using Augmented
Dickey-Fuller unit root test was carried out. The variables; infrastructural growth, domestic debt, external debt, exchange rate, and interest rate were found to be stationary at their first differences. Then, an ARDL Bound Co-integration technique was used to establish if the stationary variables are co-integrated in the long-run. The finding indicates that the variables were found to be co-integrated in the long run. Further, an ARDL was employed to obtain long run coefficients of the respective regressors. The ARDL result revealed that Domestic Debt (negative impact), exchange Rate (negative impact), and Interest Rate (positive impact) exerts a significant influence on infrastructural growth while External Debt (positive impact) was found to be insignificantly related to the growth of infrastructures in Nigeria. It recommends amongst others, that the government should as a matter of priority create more favourable institutional policy and regulatory framework to meet up these challenges. On the whole, there is need for the policymakers to adopt policy framework consistent with availability of external finance that is credibly maintained. Conclusively, infrastructure growth is one of major elements of structural reforms in developing economy like Nigeria because of its expected large economic and social impact

This study examines the impact of external debt on Nigeria economic performance using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ( ADRL) approach. The analyses covers key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, debt servicing, and external borrowing over a selected period of time. findings reveal that while external debt has the potential to support economic growth , excessive debt accumulation and high debt servicing costs have had a negative effect on Nigeria's economic performance in the long run. the ARDL results confirm both short and long term relationships between external debt and economic performance . The study recommends improved debt management strategies and efficient utilization of borrowed funds to ensure sustainable growth.

The problems of Small and Medium Scale Industries (SMIs) in Nigerian cannot be understated
as a number of factors tend to limit their growth potentials. They’re still faced with the issue of
large capital outlay and to overcome this problem, external borrowing has become inevitable. Commercial banks appear to be the most likely source of funds. Thus, the overall objective of
this research is to identify ways and means by which the vibrancy of small and medium scale
industries will be sustained so that they can play the expected role as one of the engines for
growth in Nigeria’s economic development effort. While a descriptive statistics research design
was adopted in the investigation. Outcome of the study indicates that, there exists an inverse
relationship (though not statistically significant) between the amount of domestic credit made
available to SMI’s and the output of SMI’S in Nigeria. This trend has shown the poor attitude of
commercial banks towards the granting of loans to SMI’s in Nigeria. Conclusively, the inability
of our commercial banks to grant effective loans to SMI’s have translated to low level of output
of SMI’s to GDP. This in turn has impacted negatively on average capacity utilization. While
commercial banks are expected to come to the rescue of SMI’s, the truth must be said, that these
institutions are profit oriented and may not be in a vantage position to give long term loans with
depositor funds that are predominantly short tenured. Based on the findings of study, this paper
recommends that, the intervention programs put in place to reduce the problems of the SMI’s
should be strengthened. Lastly, the Bank of Industry (BOI) should be properly positioned in its
mandate of providing financial assistance for the establishment of large, medium and small
projects as well as the expansion, diversification and modernization of existing enterprises and to
rehabilitate the ailing ones

The problems of Small and Medium Scale Industries (SMIs) in Nigerian cannot be understated
as a number of factors tend to limit their growth potentials. They’re still faced with the issue of
large capital outlay and to overcome this problem, external borrowing has become inevitable. Commercial banks appear to be the most likely source of funds. Thus, the overall objective of
this research is to identify ways and means by which the vibrancy of small and medium scale
industries will be sustained so that they can play the expected role as one of the engines for
growth in Nigeria’s economic development effort. While a descriptive statistics research design
was adopted in the investigation. Outcome of the study indicates that, there exists an inverse
relationship (though not statistically significant) between the amount of domestic credit made
available to SMI’s and the output of SMI’S in Nigeria. This trend has shown the poor attitude of
commercial banks towards the granting of loans to SMI’s in Nigeria. Conclusively, the inability
of our commercial banks to grant effective loans to SMI’s have translated to low level of output
of SMI’s to GDP. This in turn has impacted negatively on average capacity utilization. While
commercial banks are expected to come to the rescue of SMI’s, the truth must be said, that these
institutions are profit oriented and may not be in a vantage position to give long term loans with
depositor funds that are predominantly short tenured. Based on the findings of study, this paper
recommends that, the intervention programs put in place to reduce the problems of the SMI’s
should be strengthened. Lastly, the Bank of Industry (BOI) should be properly positioned in its
mandate of providing financial assistance for the establishment of large, medium and small
projects as well as the expansion, diversification and modernization of existing enterprises and to
rehabilitate the ailing ones.