LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE PREDICTION IN DELTA STATE FOR 2030 USING GEOSPATIAL TECHNIQUES
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Abstract
Land use and land cover (LULC) changes significantly influence urban planning, environmental management, and sustainable development. This study examines LULC dynamics in Delta State, Nigeria, over multiple years using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. As one of Nigeria’s rapidly urbanizing regions, Delta State has witnessed extensive land cover transformations, driven by urban expansion, infrastructure growth, and economic activities.
Utilizing Sentinel-2 images from 2018, 2021, and 2024, alongside a projected land-cover model for 2030, this study employs supervised classification techniques to analyze land-cover transitions over time. Findings reveal that built-up areas increased by approximately 29% from 2018 to 2024, largely driven by urban expansion and infrastructural development. Conversely, dense vegetation cover declined by about 10.6%, primarily due to deforestation and land conversion for agricultural and residential purposes. Cropland expanded significantly by 27.8%, reflecting the ongoing transformation of vegetated areas into farmland, while bare land rose by 43%, associated with vegetation degradation and construction activities. Water bodies exhibited a moderate increase of 33.6%, likely influenced by expanded reservoirs and hydrological variations. Future projections for 2030 suggest that built-up areas will continue expanding at an accelerated rate, with a potential 31.7% increase from 2024, further intensifying pressure on natural ecosystems. Dense vegetation is expected to decline slightly, while cropland continues to expand, underscoring
growing agricultural demands. Bare land may decrease as some areas transition to built-up or reclaimed zones, and water bodies are projected to increase marginally. These trends, if sustained, could exacerbate environmental challenges such as biodiversity loss, flooding, and urban heat island effects, emphasizing the need for sustainable land-use planning and effective conservation
measures
Utilizing Sentinel-2 images from 2018, 2021, and 2024, alongside a projected land-cover model for 2030, this study employs supervised classification techniques to analyze land-cover transitions over time. Findings reveal that built-up areas increased by approximately 29% from 2018 to 2024, largely driven by urban expansion and infrastructural development. Conversely, dense vegetation cover declined by about 10.6%, primarily due to deforestation and land conversion for agricultural and residential purposes. Cropland expanded significantly by 27.8%, reflecting the ongoing transformation of vegetated areas into farmland, while bare land rose by 43%, associated with vegetation degradation and construction activities. Water bodies exhibited a moderate increase of 33.6%, likely influenced by expanded reservoirs and hydrological variations. Future projections for 2030 suggest that built-up areas will continue expanding at an accelerated rate, with a potential 31.7% increase from 2024, further intensifying pressure on natural ecosystems. Dense vegetation is expected to decline slightly, while cropland continues to expand, underscoring
growing agricultural demands. Bare land may decrease as some areas transition to built-up or reclaimed zones, and water bodies are projected to increase marginally. These trends, if sustained, could exacerbate environmental challenges such as biodiversity loss, flooding, and urban heat island effects, emphasizing the need for sustainable land-use planning and effective conservation
measures
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