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Abstract
This study examines how the decline of vegetation has affected rainfall patterns in Abuja, Nigeria, between 2015 and 2024. Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and CHIRPS rainfall data, the research analyzed land use and rainfall changes over time through Google Earth Engine and ArcGIS. Findings revealed a major shift in Abuja’s landscape during the study period. Tree cover, which accounted for about 71.81% of the area in 2015, declined sharply to 23.71% by 2024, while built-up and farmland areas expanded significantly due to rapid urban growth. Rainfall trends also became more irregular, showing a noticeable decrease after 2018. Statistical analysis indicated a strong negative relationship (r = -0.76) between vegetation cover and rainfall, suggesting that as green spaces declined, rainfall reduced correspondingly. This loss of vegetation has weakened natural cooling and moisture recycling processes, contributing to hotter and drier conditions across the city. The findings show that the conversion of natural green areas into concrete surfaces has disrupted Abuja’s local hydrological balance and may be influencing recent changes in rainfall distribution. The study concludes that protecting and restoring green spaces is essential for improving rainfall stability and climate resilience. It recommends the implementation of sustainable urban planning strategies, reforestation initiatives, and stronger environmental policies to restore ecological balance and promote a healthier urban environment in Abuja.
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